Category

US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP... Read More →

2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice... Read More →

Headline inflation as measured by the CPI was 0.3% in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.1% in November. pic.twitter.com/124FDHOAiC — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 11, 2024 We estimate that Dec’s core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1-... Read More →

The never ending late cycle #economic environment continues with a relatively strong jobs report: > Health care & Government still the largest drivers of #job gains +77k & +49k > Revisions -35k for Sept.> Average hourly earnings up> Unemployment rate... Read More →

Here's a look at current yields across the Treasury curve compared to the peak closing yield seen for each bond/bill during the current tightening cycle. Yields have come down quite a bit, but we're still mostly inverted. pic.twitter.com/xFI3xrRpZI — Bespoke... Read More →

Headline inflation in the PCE index was 0.36% in September from August The 12-month PCE inflation rate held steady at 3.4% 6-month annualized rate: +3.1% (vs 2.6% in Aug)3-month annualized rate: +3.8% (vs 3.1% in Aug) pic.twitter.com/QGapKKO2H5 — Nick Timiraos... Read More →

First, to visualize core inflation itself, recent reversal aside, we see 6-month trending downward nicely within 2023. Target for CPI is more like 2.5% (long story), and that we comfortably have something in lower half of 3% already with a... Read More →

Aside from oil and the Energy sector, it was a bad quarter for major asset classes. pic.twitter.com/sonk429g0q — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 29, 2023 Headline PCE inflation was 3.5% over the 12 months ended August The PCE price index was +3.2%... Read More →

#FOMC pause, summary of economic projections pretty in-line with expectations: GDP up, unemployment rate down, inflation roughly in-line, BUT they took next year's #Fed funds for forecast up trying to get markets to see higher for longer in bond pricing.https://t.co/V2cVDxgLf5... Read More →

  Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia will create a “significant supply shortfall.” with global oil markets facing a deficit of 1.2 million barrels: IEA https://t.co/aEJTwzU2zU pic.twitter.com/V50uwhQ8K0 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 13, 2023 After a record 25... Read More →