September 13, 2023

 

Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia will create a “significant supply shortfall.” with global oil markets facing a deficit of 1.2 million barrels: IEA https://t.co/aEJTwzU2zU pic.twitter.com/V50uwhQ8K0

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 13, 2023

After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced inflation on a YoY basis for 4 straight months. This is a great sign for the American worker that hopefully continues. pic.twitter.com/h0v4efg3K1

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 13, 2023

Market internals tell us more about the market than the market itself. Mega vs. Micro Cap stock indices at ATHs not a sign of an improving economic backdrop. #macro #HOPE $OEF $IWC pic.twitter.com/d1cuy1iqA8

— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) September 12, 2023

"3 out of 4 FMS investors expect the most likely outcome for the global economy will be either a 'soft' landing (64%) or 'no' landing (11%)" – BofA Sept Fund Manager Survey pic.twitter.com/VtytdlBmWI

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) September 12, 2023

Equal-weighted S&P 500 continues to suffer relative to cap-weighted version … ratio has fallen to lowest since November 2020 pic.twitter.com/U0ZyTClnk4

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 12, 2023

If earnings are bottoming out, per estimates, it is perfectly rational for the valuation side of the market to lead the way. But that valuation phase is now behind us, which means that actual earnings growth will need to carry the market forward. pic.twitter.com/dvbhIKb2Ut

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 13, 2023

 

Brighter days ahead for earnings? Q1 earnings growth ended up at -3% (from -6% at the start), and Q2 growth ended up at -6% (up from -8%). The incoming waves of Q3 and Q4 are currently at -1% and +8%. If those estimates are right, that means that earnings have bottomed. pic.twitter.com/yOUlmYZeRd

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 13, 2023

this is a crazy chart pic.twitter.com/SqROn5IloF

— Mayank Seksaria (@MayankSeksaria) September 11, 2023

With ISM Services (orange) data thru August, looks like PMIs are starting to find their footing given Manufacturing (blue) moved higher as well, though, new orders ticked down pic.twitter.com/cx8Qeqique

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 7, 2023

If it seems like liquidity is drying up, that's because it is.

According to JP Morgan, current excess household liquidity stands at $1.4 trillion.

However, they expect that liquidity to be fully depleted by May 2024.

Excess household savings are being depleted at a rate of… pic.twitter.com/h3auBvP3dz

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 12, 2023

Great chart from @NancyRLazar1 of @Piper_Sandler this morning.

Excess Savings. "They’ve already declined sharply, set to hit $0 by Halloween. Surging student loan interest payments will hasten that drawdown." pic.twitter.com/VLPcKqVD4R

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) September 11, 2023

The average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate ticked up to 7.27% last week and is holding at 22-year highs, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Applications for home-purchase loans are anemic pic.twitter.com/fp0KOuUgk1

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 13, 2023

Here’s a BBG table giving the maths per various curve points for a +/- 50 bp move pic.twitter.com/9nstpPrOTq

— KKGB Kitty (@INArteCarloDoss) September 12, 2023

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