Market Commentary 3Q 2023
KEY TAKEAWAYS Leading Indicators Still Point to Recession Deficits and Debt Back in Focus Compelling Risk/Reward for Bonds Stocks Need Broader Fundamental Support Focus on Protecting Capital ECONOMY – LEADING INDICATORS POINT TO RECESSION We continue to believe that... Read More →
Market Commentary Q2 2023
Key Takeaways The market and economy are facing mixed signals. The yield curve and leading economic indicators are predicting recession. The negative effect of higher interest rates has yet to filter through the economy. Valuations have expanded significantly driven primarily... Read More →
Market Commentary Q1 2023
Recessionary Pressures Building Our outlook for the economy continues to include a recession sometime this year or next. This view is supported by leading economic indicators that show significant slowing and are consistent with levels reached in the past... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q4 2022
Hard to Find Reprieve in 2022 One year ago, we wrote about soaring inflation and the Fed’s need to act quickly to get it under control. Even as inflation approached double-digits early in the year, the Fed continued to downplay... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q3 2022
Economy: Surprisingly Strong but Tailwinds Fading Growth has been more resilient than expected this year, despite the steepest Fed hiking cycle on record. Continued growth is a reminder that monetary policy works on a lag… typically taking hold 6-18 months... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q2 2022
Market Performance Reflects Higher Likelihood of Recession It was hard to hide in Q2. Stocks and bonds both recorded historically bad quarters as inflation continued to march higher and the Fed began aggressively hiking rates. Higher interest rates and abrupt... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q1 2022
Despite Uncertainties, We Expect Continued Economic Growth We believe economic growth will continue through the remainder of the year, albeit at a moderating pace. Consumer demand still has strong support from wage growth, continued reopening, and pent-up savings from stimulus.... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q4 2021
2021 Beat Expectations in Many Ways… Good and Bad Jobs, consumer spending, corporate earnings, stock prices, home values and even digital assets like crypto currencies and NFTs all grew to incredible heights in 2021. The highs did not come without... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q3 2021
Path to Normalization Our post-pandemic path to normalization has proven challenging on numerous levels, but we are optimistic the coming year will see the world back on a sustainable growth track. In the US, the percentage of the population that... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q2 2021
Transition to Self-Sustaining Growth The U.S. economy has blown past even the most optimistic predictions of what a recovery might look like only a year ago. Overly generous monetary and fiscal policy produced a snapback beyond anything we have experienced... Read More →