January 30, 2024
US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP... Read More →
January 23, 2024
2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice... Read More →
Market Commentary Q4 2023
UPSIDE SURPRISE IN 2023 The US economy was surprisingly strong in 2023, seeing job growth and higher consumer spending, all while inflation moderated. The economy benefited from a third consecutive year of fiscal stimulus with a cumulative $10 trillion... Read More →
January 16, 2024
Headline inflation as measured by the CPI was 0.3% in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.1% in November. pic.twitter.com/124FDHOAiC — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 11, 2024 We estimate that Dec’s core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1-... Read More →