June 13, 2024

3/ The prime working age employment population ratio, probably the best all-in indicator in this report, held steady at 80.8%, just shy of its cyclical high (which was the highest since 2001).

It’s stopped going up for the time being, but not going down either. pic.twitter.com/bBlcPhK8bp

— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) June 7, 2024

One thing that came out of today’s labor report: aggregate income growth ~ 6% annualized over the past 3 months.

That’s strong, but not red-hot. also suggests strong nominal GDP growth.

Much more in my new blog 👇@CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick https://t.co/dXZJRObEs2 pic.twitter.com/PpQorAiTKX

— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) June 7, 2024

I’ve been around long enough to know that you never want to make too big of a deal about one data point. That said, ISM New Orders completely cratered in May. It does get revised at times albeit not a lot in the grand scheme of typical data series (it’s existed since 1948). pic.twitter.com/B44BaMEPEY

— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan) June 4, 2024

PAYROLLS

Residential construction, total construction, and mfg payrolls still rising.

These are areas that lead broader job losses prior to a recession.

Remember: Construction jobs ~5% of total US payrolls but account for ~20% of jobs lost historically in a recession. pic.twitter.com/x9BP6jRjsl

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) June 7, 2024

BREAKING! The #ECB lowers interest rates for the first time since 2019. pic.twitter.com/42chrvXnL5

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) June 6, 2024

Apple just announced a ton of incredible AI developments at WWDC.

The 11 most impressive reveals:

1. Using the iPad calculator as a notepad and getting real-time answers pic.twitter.com/dRxwD7z7jO

— Rowan Cheung (@rowancheung) June 10, 2024

Semiconductor industry’s weight in the S&P 500 has gone parabolic pic.twitter.com/yjqM56tgzv

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 10, 2024

The U.S. is adding more new apartments in the first half of 2024 than we did in most FULL CALENDAR YEARS over the last 3 decades, and yet demand is (almost) keeping pace.

Top 10 Companies as a Percentage of the S&P 500, 1875 to 2024 pic.twitter.com/b8Y98ApvYp

— Dividend Growth Investor (@DividendGrowth) June 10, 2024

The combined value of Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple tops China’s entire market, per Bloomberg.$MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $SHCOMP $ASHR pic.twitter.com/jnSU5Vhl0H

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 6, 2024

It’s out there that the equity market’s leadership has been narrow. How narrow exactly? Through the end of May, almost 2/3rds of stocks in the S&P 500 were underperforming the index in 2024. This is on par with last year, and a statistic only ever seen in the late 1990s. pic.twitter.com/vkAES2ixr8

— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan) June 7, 2024

Sequoia estimates that the AI industry spent $50B on the NVidia chips used to train advanced AI models in 2023 but brought in only $3B in revenue. -via Dan Niles$NVDA $AMD $MSFT $GOOG $META

— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) June 6, 2024

Top 10 Companies as a Percentage of the S&P 500, 1875 to 2024 pic.twitter.com/b8Y98ApvYp

— Dividend Growth Investor (@DividendGrowth) June 10, 2024

The combined value of Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple tops China’s entire market, per Bloomberg.$MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $SHCOMP $ASHR pic.twitter.com/jnSU5Vhl0H

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 6, 2024

Sequoia estimates that the AI industry spent $50B on the NVidia chips used to train advanced AI models in 2023 but brought in only $3B in revenue. -via Dan Niles$NVDA $AMD $MSFT $GOOG $META

— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) June 6, 2024

“Forward earnings estimates at a record, supporting stocks” – Truist

whole ballgame pic.twitter.com/fJJN0QZ7gJ

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) June 5, 2024

Office CRE vacancy rate near 20% -Torstenhttps://t.co/9T290fZO1F pic.twitter.com/RRZVCdecOR

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 11, 2024

It’s out there that the equity market’s leadership has been narrow. How narrow exactly? Through the end of May, almost 2/3rds of stocks in the S&P 500 were underperforming the index in 2024. This is on par with last year, and a statistic only ever seen in the late 1990s. pic.twitter.com/vkAES2ixr8

— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan) June 7, 2024

That is crazy– and don’t give a stalled-out for-sale housing market all the credit. Would-be buyers are… pic.twitter.com/J7FkeoAcJc

— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) June 11, 2024

“China [accounts] for about one-third of total global clean energy spending, adding as much solar photovoltaic capacity in 2023 as the rest of the world in 2022 combined.”@FT @IEA pic.twitter.com/SJLcxr94Qo

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 11, 2024

Double win: recovery coming out of 2020 recession has been best for household net worth (compared to prior 3 recessions) … and though labor force recovery is slightly weaker than those after ‘01 and ‘90 recessions, we’ve still climbed out of a deep hole @WSJ @NickTimiraos pic.twitter.com/YoP5mENbhI

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 11, 2024

Xi and Putin may be buddies, but China isn’t making economic concessions — quite the opposite. We estimate that China accounted for 56% of Russia’s imports and 30% of its exports in 2023. Russia only accounted for 5% of China’s imports and 4% of its exports. @x1skv 1/ pic.twitter.com/S7BiWth4nd

— Gerard DiPippo (@gdp1985) June 6, 2024

“Forward earnings estimates at a record, supporting stocks” – Truist

whole ballgame pic.twitter.com/fJJN0QZ7gJ

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) June 5, 2024

Top 10 Companies as a Percentage of the S&P 500, 1875 to 2024 pic.twitter.com/b8Y98ApvYp

— Dividend Growth Investor (@DividendGrowth) June 10, 2024

It’s out there that the equity market’s leadership has been narrow. How narrow exactly? Through the end of May, almost 2/3rds of stocks in the S&P 500 were underperforming the index in 2024. This is on par with last year, and a statistic only ever seen in the late 1990s. pic.twitter.com/vkAES2ixr8

— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan) June 7, 2024

Sequoia estimates that the AI industry spent $50B on the NVidia chips used to train advanced AI models in 2023 but brought in only $3B in revenue. -via Dan Niles$NVDA $AMD $MSFT $GOOG $META

— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) June 6, 2024

The combined value of Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple tops China’s entire market, per Bloomberg.$MSFT $NVDA $AAPL $SHCOMP $ASHR pic.twitter.com/jnSU5Vhl0H

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) June 6, 2024

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