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By

Aaron Lang

June 13, 2024

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3/ The prime working age employment population ratio, probably the best all-in indicator in this report, held steady at 80.8%, just shy of its cyclical high (which was the highest since 2001). It’s stopped going up for the time being,...
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May 15, 2024

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US debt servicing costs currently make up 12% of government spending, via Apollo's Torsten Slok. That could go up substantially if rates stay high and spending habits continue as they are. pic.twitter.com/uyAzYZ9uCJ — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 13, 2024 The...
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April 30, 2024

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The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer–3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story...
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April 23, 2024

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"The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks global markets." cc: @FT pic.twitter.com/qszIPHrQBx — Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner)...
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April 16, 2024

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Relative to the S&P 500, just Energy, Communication Services, and Information Technology are outperforming in 2024. pic.twitter.com/OXeNLPoK9u — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) April 15, 2024 The S&P 500 bull is exhausted. Momentum has been fading fast, suggesting a rocky period is coming...
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April 9, 2024

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Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February Average three-month private sector hiring:...
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March 19, 2024

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  The headline CPI index rose 0.44% in February and was up 3.2% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.2% pic.twitter.com/aXEwQHkpIv — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2024 China has provided a big disinflationary impulse driving...
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February 20, 2024

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The latest data shows that the UK has fallen into a technical recession. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. pic.twitter.com/gmBP0u6min — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 15, 2024 🇺🇸The US #economy is in...
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January 30, 2024

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US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP...
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January 23, 2024

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2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice...
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