March 15, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Look at that policy path repricing! From the gray bars at the beginning of last week to the blue bars today (now a sub<5% terminal rate... Read More →
March 8, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance US 2y yields jump to almost 5% following hawkish Powell speech. Says ultimate rate peak likely to be higher than expected. pic.twitter.com/syiU86ZV3R — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner)... Read More →
February 22, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance "Recession odds peaked in Nov'22 at 77% and have since declined to 24% this month (down 27ppt MoM), lowest since Jun'22." – BofA Global Fund Manager... Read More →
February 8, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Top takeaways from January jobs report: 1) Job market is strong (better than thought!) +517,000 in January and up in 20222) Wage growth is slowing –>Fed... Read More →
January 31, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Strong headline GDP: 2.9% (ar) in Q4. Led by consumption (+2.1%) but also more volatile factors like inventory investment, net exports and government spending. Residential investment... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q4 2022
Hard to Find Reprieve in 2022 One year ago, we wrote about soaring inflation and the Fed’s need to act quickly to get it under control. Even as inflation approached double-digits early in the year, the Fed continued to downplay... Read More →
January 24, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance US Produce Prices YoY w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/QRsJBkUVVr — Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 18, 2023 US Produce Prices MoM w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/Vw0d6a4KgZ — Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January... Read More →
January 18, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance World Bank Cuts 2023 Forecasts and Warns of Global Recession https://t.co/1fFuyva5LH pic.twitter.com/gzCkrX0NAX — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) January 10, 2023 Year-on-year CPI inflation in the US is... Read More →
December 28, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance #Stocks tend to bottom when leading economic indicators (LEI) bottom. The @Conferenceboard LEI -4.46% YoY in November, at the current trend they have 6 months before... Read More →
December 21, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Key Fed Takeaways: – Fed slows rate increase, as expected– But emphasizes that it will do more to restrain the economy– Rates to 5.1% next year,... Read More →