April 30, 2024
The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer–3%.
Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1 https://t.co/Y7Mvn3mvcf pic.twitter.com/QVQkhXDdso
— Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) April 26, 2024
The Employment Cost Index, the most comprehensive measure of wages in America, came in hotter than expected today, even increasing from the end of 2023.
Private sector wages grew 4.3% over the last year and even faster on an annualized basis this quarter. pic.twitter.com/qySu1qEh6S
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) April 30, 2024
JUST IN: The US economy grew 1.6% in Q1. That’s solid, but it’s a clear slowdown from 3.4% in Q4.
Consumption moderated a little bit. Biz investment was still solid. ***But the biggest change was a slowdown in exports and government spending***
Q1 2024: 1.6%
Q4 2023: 3.4%
Q3… pic.twitter.com/uYOAwCx0O1— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) April 25, 2024
Playing devil's advocate on growth fears: private domestic demand (GDP ex-inventories, gov't, and trade) came in at 3.1% in Q1, supporting the idea that the "underlying" trend of econ growth remained strong… pic.twitter.com/HWES3c2x23
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) April 25, 2024
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. We've seen a strong aggregate earnings surprise thus far during reporting season (9% for the S&P 500; highest since 2021). Price reactions have been more muted .. fits with our view that the market continues to be discerning when it comes to operational… pic.twitter.com/sdpgxipzBs
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 29, 2024
Everyone knows the US-Eurozone growth divergence is happening, but it's really bonkers when you look at it like this. (Chart via BCA Research) pic.twitter.com/7kDivKkhZ1
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) April 29, 2024
B of A: “While the correction may not be over yet, the overall chart structure remains constructive, and seasonality supports buying a dip prior to a summer rally. $SPX supports are near 5000 (tested), 4800 and 4600. Upside counts remain the 5200s .. 5600s and 6150.” pic.twitter.com/VeoDpJ3b4A
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 30, 2024
More than 80% of total employment in the US economy is outside the S&P 500 companies -Torsten pic.twitter.com/oTMIVMvCR6
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 30, 2024
Chart of the day via Apollo
One big reason the U.S. economy continues to be so 'strong' pic.twitter.com/eclTMqLCIk
— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) April 23, 2024
The number of public companies has fallen fast https://t.co/jlY0F637pp pic.twitter.com/C7l39h26N2
— Barry Ritholtz (@Ritholtz) April 30, 2024
Combined capex spending of META/MSFT/GOOGL:
FY 2007: $4.6 billion
FY 2021: $63.9 billion
FY 2024 (projected): $122.9 billion— Conor Sen (@conorsen) April 24, 2024
Microsoft’s yearly data center spend for the next few years is more than that of the Apollo program (yes, adjusted for inflation) https://t.co/jQbGxvUyQ8
— Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag) April 25, 2024
A crazy fact from @mjmauboussin.
The biggest tech companies are spending twice as much on capex as energy companies. pic.twitter.com/3t1SNj1qA5
— Invest Like the Best (@InvestLikeBest) April 23, 2024
'Led by AI, the top 10 companies by capex spend accounted for 29% of total capex in 2023. Similarly, just ten firms accounted for 54% of total R&D spend.' https://t.co/gYo5cnW770 via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/li3kGNekFW
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 23, 2024
It's remarkable when you look at the notional value of R&D that Amazon $AMZN spends relative to the rest of the tech giants.
Normalised for revenues, however, Meta $META and Nvidia $NVDA are often the biggest spenders in that department. pic.twitter.com/qGF5oVvnyx
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) April 23, 2024
Good episode on how utilities can be a bottleneck for AI revolution.
"I don’t think people quite realize the degree to which Microsoft is really just an energy company. We need power and we need silicon, we need chips…If we don't have one of those two things, we're in a lot of… pic.twitter.com/XcUZj8uMdq
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) April 28, 2024
ChatGPT queries are 6x-10x as power intensive as traditional Google searches pic.twitter.com/bZ8KnFUeL4
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) April 29, 2024
I guess it was only a matter of time before we put the concept of MMT to the test. @DanCliftonStrat chart on net interest costs as a percent of tax revenue (red line). Last time interest costs were this significant were in the 1960s and they had to do a thing called austerity. pic.twitter.com/3psysWtqfv
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) April 29, 2024
Solar & Wind capacity additions pic.twitter.com/PQjxGRQG67
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 25, 2024
The U.S. fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from the year before. It is the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s. https://t.co/tErEoxDety pic.twitter.com/bumjsx7CwO
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 25, 2024
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