Aaron Lang

Here's a look at current yields across the Treasury curve compared to the peak closing yield seen for each bond/bill during the current tightening cycle. Yields have come down quite a bit, but we're still mostly inverted. pic.twitter.com/xFI3xrRpZI — Bespoke... Read More →

Headline inflation in the PCE index was 0.36% in September from August The 12-month PCE inflation rate held steady at 3.4% 6-month annualized rate: +3.1% (vs 2.6% in Aug)3-month annualized rate: +3.8% (vs 3.1% in Aug) pic.twitter.com/QGapKKO2H5 — Nick Timiraos... Read More →

First, to visualize core inflation itself, recent reversal aside, we see 6-month trending downward nicely within 2023. Target for CPI is more like 2.5% (long story), and that we comfortably have something in lower half of 3% already with a... Read More →

Aside from oil and the Energy sector, it was a bad quarter for major asset classes. pic.twitter.com/sonk429g0q — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 29, 2023 Headline PCE inflation was 3.5% over the 12 months ended August The PCE price index was +3.2%... Read More →

#FOMC pause, summary of economic projections pretty in-line with expectations: GDP up, unemployment rate down, inflation roughly in-line, BUT they took next year's #Fed funds for forecast up trying to get markets to see higher for longer in bond pricing.https://t.co/V2cVDxgLf5... Read More →

  Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia will create a “significant supply shortfall.” with global oil markets facing a deficit of 1.2 million barrels: IEA https://t.co/aEJTwzU2zU pic.twitter.com/V50uwhQ8K0 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 13, 2023 After a record 25... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance BREAKING: Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Index soars to 5.03% pic.twitter.com/ssPnrKJC1Q — Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) August 15, 2023 What a monthly mortgage payment would look like for a... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance There has been an absolutely wild divergence in macro data surprises in the past few months and I am old enough to know that there is... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Shorter Powell -FOMC believes policy is restrictive-Doesn’t see Fed cutting this year-Sees 2% inflation w/out big job losses-Staff no longer forecast recession Market hears you’re done,... Read More →