October 17, 2023

First, to visualize core inflation itself, recent reversal aside, we see 6-month trending downward nicely within 2023.

Target for CPI is more like 2.5% (long story), and that we comfortably have something in lower half of 3% already with a strong economy is very comforting. /2 pic.twitter.com/DvoooYgqUw

— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) October 12, 2023

September retail sales +0.7% m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +0.8% in prior month … sales ex-auto +0.6% vs. +0.2% est. & +0.9% prior … control group +0.6% vs. +0.1% est. & +0.2% prior pic.twitter.com/3N0V0RQOBn

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 17, 2023

Retail sales’ trend re-accelerating … level continues to look quite stretched relative to pre-COVID trendline pic.twitter.com/Q32WmcEYTl

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 17, 2023

I love studies like this that compare difficult to measure data points across countries. The savings rate is notorious for being revised a great deal, so treat it carefully. That said, this study concludes that Americans are the only ones saving less than prior to the pandemic. pic.twitter.com/1F0n1KECvs

— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan) October 17, 2023

The 10-year Treasury yield has now regained all the ground it lost after the news of the Hamas attacks; back to 4.8%. Heavy-spending US consumers seem to be enough to counterbalance the geopolitical risks….. pic.twitter.com/wwzw7FmQOS

— John Authers (@johnauthers) October 17, 2023

🔥🔥Total return bond matrix assuming a 1-year holding period

Takeaways:
🔥It's almost impossible to lose money with short-term bonds
🔥Safe havens (10-year tenors) have reached a soft spot IF rates are peaking now
🥶Ultra-long bonds are still at risk @SaxoStrats @saxobank pic.twitter.com/PvXZUjj9Jh

— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) October 17, 2023

the risk/reward in duration right now is wild

12-month expected returns for 30-year Treasuries if yields…
– rise 50bp: -2.9%
– fall 50bp: +13.2% pic.twitter.com/cWPywpgyCK

— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) October 12, 2023

The top 5 stocks, now 24% of total index market cap and 15% of net income, should continue to post stronger earnings growth in the short run, but their S&P 500 EPS growth dominance may start to falter in 2024. EPS growth history and forecast below. pic.twitter.com/ITvQLq8QeE

— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) October 13, 2023

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