October 31, 2023

Headline inflation in the PCE index was 0.36% in September from August

The 12-month PCE inflation rate held steady at 3.4%

6-month annualized rate: +3.1% (vs 2.6% in Aug)
3-month annualized rate: +3.8% (vs 3.1% in Aug) pic.twitter.com/QGapKKO2H5

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 27, 2023

(2/2) To get a view of what's really driving GDP under the surface, we can look at private domestic demand (i.e. GDP excluding inventories, net exports, govt spending). Q3 was strong even on this measure, with strong consumer spending standing out. pic.twitter.com/lhkNIu3jfa

— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) October 26, 2023

Here are the main numbers on private wages showing a small acceleration.

More later. pic.twitter.com/BeFqOs8I0s

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 31, 2023

The pace of wage growth is consistent with what you would expect with 3.2 to 3.7 percent inflation depending on which data series you're looking at. pic.twitter.com/ScXvFxGIhE

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 31, 2023

Monthly personal spending grew 0.7% (above est of 0.5%), while income grew 0.3% (below est of 0.4%). That's the fourth straight month of spending > income. To do this consumers are either dipping into savings or taking on debt. Or both. pic.twitter.com/Jrs18gNnq1

— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) October 27, 2023

The economic debate has mostly moved on from inflation. But it's not clear that inflation itself has moved on. These are plausible forecasts for core CPI inflation in September and October. pic.twitter.com/92N8fkjVt9

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) October 26, 2023

Weight of top 10 holdings in S&P 500 still increasing…

Now = 32.5%

via JPM pic.twitter.com/ygYB2PpsRj

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) October 26, 2023

This week's earnings remind me of a great chart from @_rob_anderson. @NDR_Research Tech Titans account for 29% of $SPX market cap & 18% of earnings. 11% gap is near a record. Tech has to report great EPS to justify the rally they've already had let alone outperform going forward. pic.twitter.com/8kawx8LZWu

— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) October 26, 2023

The monthly mortgage payment for purchasers of existing homes, using the 30-year average mortgage rate, stands at $2,326. This is a substantial increase from $977 in March 2020.

Recently, rising mortgage rates are offsetting a slight decline in existing home prices. pic.twitter.com/09ex2cVYn5

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) October 30, 2023

Disclosure
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.