October 3, 2023
Aside from oil and the Energy sector, it was a bad quarter for major asset classes. pic.twitter.com/sonk429g0q
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 29, 2023
Headline PCE inflation was 3.5% over the 12 months ended August
The PCE price index was
+3.2% at a three-month annualized rate (highest in five months)
+2.6% at a six-month annualized rate (the second lowest since the end of 2020) pic.twitter.com/LDReHoHpQx
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 29, 2023
September ISM Manufacturing at 49 vs. 47.9 est. & 47.6 in prior month … new orders up to 49.2, prices paid down to 43.8, and production up to 52.5 (highest since July 2022) … employment edged back up into expansion at 51.2 pic.twitter.com/RjY0epDdgC
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 2, 2023
Roundtrip complete: blended forward 12m EPS estimates for S&P 500 have come back to their peak reached in mid-2022 pic.twitter.com/Z8b98Oj3fm
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 3, 2023
September global earnings estimate revisions starting to reflect a desynchronized global growth environment.
Even though U.S. positive earnings revisions are likely coming from a few mega cap companies.
S&P 500 EPS estimates ↗️, MSCI EAFE & MSCI EM ↘️.@FactSet @MikeZaccardi pic.twitter.com/ME698LW3lV
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) October 2, 2023
Interest payments and spending on gasoline ate up 4.7% of US disposable incomes in August, the most in nine years (https://t.co/PKLCGMINIw) pic.twitter.com/rjFfYILf5V
— Matthew B (@boes_) September 29, 2023
Housing recovery story losing momentum. Housing bounce <> housing recovery. #Hope https://t.co/frhaEhNvqF
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) September 28, 2023
🚨 @NewYorkFed President Williams signals the Fed has likely reached the terminal rate.
“At or near peak level”
“Two sides risks”
“Need to maintain restrictive stance for some time”Via @Jonnelle @economics pic.twitter.com/v3lCTkWIJi
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) September 29, 2023
The moment to add duration is approaching, but we are not there yet.
Below is the quarterly $TLT fund flows versus price. Since Q4 2021 investors have been increasingly betting on ultra-long duration, but prices have been plunging -40% since then.@saxobank @SaxoStrats @SaxoUK pic.twitter.com/bwT1lqjPpB
— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) September 29, 2023
This has gotta be the chart of the decade.
Monthly mortgage payment Via @M_McDonough pic.twitter.com/6NHRyJF4CM
— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) September 28, 2023
The issue of the over-concentrated US stock market won't go away. Bloomberg's index of the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia & Tesla) is up 80% for the year. The S&P Equal Weight (representing the average stock) is slightly negative: pic.twitter.com/5hiyDUb1N5
— John Authers (@johnauthers) September 27, 2023
Another strong month for US manufacturing construction—and computer/electronics manufacturing hit a new record high! pic.twitter.com/IpdZOfDmQo
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) October 2, 2023
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