September 26, 2023
#FOMC pause, summary of economic projections pretty in-line with expectations:
GDP up, unemployment rate down, inflation roughly in-line, BUT they took next year's #Fed funds for forecast up trying to get markets to see higher for longer in bond pricing.https://t.co/V2cVDxgLf5 pic.twitter.com/zCKrwuRdZZ
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) September 20, 2023
Nice "higher for longer" chart from @OxfordEconomics pic.twitter.com/HwnXu2WVu0
— Myles Udland (@MylesUdland) September 21, 2023
What does Mr Market want to tell us? US 2s/10s yield curve bear steepened. 2s/10s spread jumped by 8bps to -60bps. pic.twitter.com/pqiOgfr0Gg
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 25, 2023
If the S&P closes at these levels, it'll be in a 5% selloff.
We've seen about two of these a year since 1950.
This is normal. pic.twitter.com/NQiNxTZOQu
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 21, 2023
Nominal 10-year Treasury yields are above 4.5%, while real yields are 2.17% (magenta). Hard to imagine rates moving up further or staying at these levels without stock valuations (blue) declining. Multiple compression risk is rising… pic.twitter.com/75P3mAopHo
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) September 25, 2023
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.0.
This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (18.7) but above the 10-year average (17.5). meh pic.twitter.com/FXS3R4oRjr
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 22, 2023
Speaking of neutral interest rates, but from more of a distributional perspective: The 10-year Treasury yield has once again risen above wage growth, probably ending a five-year period during which wages had been rising faster than returns on risk-free savings pic.twitter.com/3nJHgppkGA
— Matthew B (@boes_) September 25, 2023
Continuous new highs for our MORTGAS index lately. 30-year fixed hit 7.75% this week as gas prices approach $4. pic.twitter.com/LXAU2QUHRO
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 23, 2023
If you think the S&P 500 is a bummer lately, look at the Russell Microcap index—it's back to its bear-market lows. This is not good. New lows here are going to put a lot of “plan Bs” back on the table at various investment committees around the world. pic.twitter.com/tf3qdH35dI
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 25, 2023
Has there ever been a better time to invest in Small Cap stocks?
Only in 1999 were Small Caps as attractive relative to Large Cap stocks as they are today.
Considering this undervaluation, it is more probable than not that Small Caps will outperform Large Caps in the next… pic.twitter.com/1sb03tBi5V
— Alexander Vogt, CFA (@VogtAlexander_) September 20, 2023
The Dow is outperforming the Nasdaq by 3.3 percentage points in Sept, biggest monthly outperformance since December 2022 –Dow Jones Market Data pic.twitter.com/nJoabRmQPo
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) September 25, 2023
Cyclicals sector relative performance to defensives peaked in 2000 & 2021.
YTD cyclicals had been on a relative tear through July, but now are seeing consolidation.
Recently defensives are holding up better, if this chart rolls over they have more relative room to run. @Factset pic.twitter.com/m8Ij14SlHe
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) September 25, 2023
The long-term outlook for stocks looks very different than it did after the 2008-09 crisis or 2001 recession. The shallow earnings recession that occurred over the last year implies a more limited rebound in EPS next year, and higher rates may constrain valuations. pic.twitter.com/OkrpRTgAwg
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) September 25, 2023
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