Market Performance (YTD)
There has been an absolutely wild divergence in macro data surprises in the past few months and I am old enough to know that there is no such thing as decoupling… pic.twitter.com/GwE5BIMpkH
— Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) August 2, 2023
Key takeaways from July job report:
1) The economy is humming
2) Job growth is slowing, but solid (+187k jobs now vs. +399k avg. last yr)
3) Service sector is hiring (health, social)
4) Women have done so well they make up 49.9% of workers (!)
5) Wage growth +4.4% y/y is well… pic.twitter.com/jeG0GfdQPW
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) August 4, 2023
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) August 4, 2023
Nothing pointing to an imminent recession in today's jobs report, but the housing industry lost 5,500 residential construction jobs.
This is the worst monthly jobs loss post-COVID.
At that pace, we should be on recession watch next summer (8% drawdown). pic.twitter.com/b8dQJXqGVx
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) August 4, 2023
Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year. Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields. https://t.co/AX0CQH7Ox3 pic.twitter.com/bP2WVhAWfi
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 7, 2023
Real yields on 30-year Treasuries have surged to the highest levels since 2011. pic.twitter.com/yjXFb0Emvr
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 4, 2023
Can oil hold above $80? Since falling below $80 in late 2022, that area has served as resistance in 2023. Crude got near or a bit above it on five separate occasions before falling once again. Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/2Qj15bM6Bz
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 3, 2023
The 2-10 yld curve has steepened by 35 bps since July
Most of the steepening has been due to the 10-year rising (bear steepener)
Bear steepeners are rare and usually occur at two distinct points of the cycle:
1) Heading into recession (inverted YC)
2) New expansion (pos YC) pic.twitter.com/ZHsGqtt3y3
— 3Fourteen Research (@3F_Research) August 6, 2023
$AAPL worst 2-day performance in 9 months.
SPX is cool with that. pic.twitter.com/XAJthARHvX
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 7, 2023
This failed breakout from the Tech sector is a problem pic.twitter.com/AfIeLDr018
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) August 7, 2023
BI Market Pulse Index has pushed to manic levels — an early sign that the equity rally might be getting a bit overheated and due for another consolidation phase. The last time the index hit manic was Jan 2023. pic.twitter.com/MKuYJADWqA
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 2, 2023
Here's how the trend of Nasdaq 100 / Russell 2000 has evolved since the 2000 bubble.
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) August 4, 2023
At 40x trail 12m sales, 25x fwd sales, Nvidia is highest valuation stock of any stock in top 500
Odds it out-performs now? 231 companies reached similar multiple last 50+years
Only 20% beat market next 12m.
>90% fail 3/5/10 years.
Median stock loses by 36% next 12m.
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) July 28, 2023
The Odds Are Stacked Against You
At a 40x trailing and 25 expected Sales, NVDA joined the club of 99 companies with highest P/S multiple within 500 largest stocks in last 60 plus years.
Some stats on winners /losers from these 99 companies that became THE highest multiple stock… pic.twitter.com/2QC7bi9GDG
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) August 3, 2023
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