April 9, 2024

Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy

Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February

Average three-month private sector hiring: pic.twitter.com/5Yt9teYndI

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 5, 2024

MARCH JOBS

+300k sounds hot, BUT more than 50% government + education/health.

This continues the trend of government jobs growing much faster than private sector. pic.twitter.com/KJMY0Orh8t

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) April 5, 2024

The manufacturing job growth diffusion index had rebounded over the prior few months, but the latest reading declined to 43.1 from 48.6 in Feb and just above the recent low of 41 last May.

The 6-month average remains in contraction territory at 43.8, down from a recent peak of… pic.twitter.com/SlcPDzpqGR

— Parker Ross (@Econ_Parker) April 5, 2024

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 4.1% yr/yr – down from 4.3% last month. The 3-month average is 4.3%. pic.twitter.com/GT2RiU5TKY

— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) April 5, 2024

Trading places? As ISM Manufacturing PMI (blue) has improved over past year, ISM Services PMI (orange) has weakened … fits with our rolling recessions/recoveries thesis (manufacturing hit first, now improving; with services now getting bumpy) pic.twitter.com/0G6mdqjJdX

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 4, 2024

Today's 50.6 reading on the global manufacturing PMI confirms the end of the manufacturing recession and points to a better earnings outlook, adding some support to analysts' bright outlook for a modest earnings rebound. pic.twitter.com/aYljjFSChn

— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) April 2, 2024

Since 1979, small caps have led the S&P 500 following 10 of the 11 ISM Mfg bottoms below a 47-handle, leading by an average 1,305 bps in the year after those lows.

The one time RTY didn't lead was after the 1996 bottom.https://t.co/DmI62KmqZq pic.twitter.com/l9Vo4jELN9

— Michael Casper (@MikeACasper) April 1, 2024

China’s manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time in six months, a sign that the world’s second-largest economy is picking up. https://t.co/ZaFkwNf3g8 via @economics pic.twitter.com/bV8XQTjji2

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 31, 2024

This is a great chart pointing to why the US is so concerned about China’s industrial over-capacity: Chinese exports of autos and lithium-based batteries have grown dramatically since the pandemic. https://t.co/UPRf0crQLJ

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 8, 2024

"One notable takeaway from our analysis of data back to 1928 is that average full-year price returns in election vs. non-election years are basically the same ― at 7.3% and 7.5%, respectively ― but the path to getting there is very different…" @BlackRock pic.twitter.com/n2DKi7bjuo

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) April 7, 2024

DIMON, on A.I.:

“.. We are completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary and possibly as transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past several hundred years. Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the… pic.twitter.com/fB0UeXjWB9

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 8, 2024

'Data centres' voracious power needs are set to rocket, as cloud storage facilities, crypto mining and AI all add strain to grids. Microsoft alone is opening a new data centre globally every three days.' https://t.co/1dw5HyazMg pic.twitter.com/nxZVV58S5x

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 1, 2024

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