January 30, 2024
US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022.
Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8%
Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP growth accelerated pic.twitter.com/StwICSXTA8
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) January 25, 2024
Not a crazy consumer. For all the talk about consumers dipping into savings and going off the rails with credit cards, real incomes ex transfers rose 3.1% while consumer spending rose 3.2%. Indeed, the saving rate rose a touch last year. Consumers are supported by income growth. pic.twitter.com/BXfdJ6d8H8
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) January 26, 2024
This #economic cycle has been tough to gauge given unrelenting government spending.@DanCliftonStrat: CY23 deficit came in at 7.7% of GDP, a level that would be more consistent historically with an unemployment rate closer to 8%.
And FY '24 $1.8T deficit estimate is optimistic. pic.twitter.com/OLwbXeH4UD
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) January 29, 2024
Core PCE is now at 2% annualized on a 3- and 6-month basis.
We're there, folks.
The Fed can cut now. pic.twitter.com/MvneE1XdBp
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) January 26, 2024
Interesting that, looking back, inflation peaked with negative GDP growth, and fell back to target over the last 2 quarters alongside a late-stage GDP boom.
Growth in output and the price level moving in opposite directions, that's wild. Does anyone know what could cause that? https://t.co/XMdvPHyrE1 pic.twitter.com/91rbHBcA3O
— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) January 26, 2024
The pressure on tech companies to satisfy high expectations this earnings season is pretty intense. The spread between tech sector earnings share of the S&P 500 and sector weight share is even higher than it was in 2021. pic.twitter.com/U0eRFF6RDC
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) January 27, 2024
This is not just like 2000 pic.twitter.com/kxWAO23HsP
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) January 24, 2024
If the Magnificent 7 were to rally 55% to reach half the valuations of the largest 7 stocks during the Dot Com Bubble, the S&P 500 would likely rally 15% 👀 pic.twitter.com/aKEgIm4XYb
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 25, 2024
Will the president have an impact on your portfolio?
Probably not. pic.twitter.com/EG9J5ikrBT— Eric Nelson, CFA (@ServoWealth) January 25, 2024
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