January 23, 2024
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The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spikeHowever, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice its "normal" level pic.twitter.com/LPdgd7Zp9B
— Patrick Zweifel (@PkZweifel) January 23, 2024
Total spending from BofA customers was $4.1 trillion in 2023, 4% higher than it was in 2022, and 35% higher than it was in 2019,https://t.co/WzbcxdsvSK pic.twitter.com/oCvjfyy12V
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) January 14, 2024
December retail sales +0.6% month/month vs. +0.4% est. & +0.3% in prior month … sales ex-autos +0.4% vs. +0.2% est. & +0.2% in prior month … control group (which matters most for GDP) +0.8% vs. +0.5% prior pic.twitter.com/l82h1DLjYv
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 17, 2024
U.S. high yield bonds were up +13% in 2023 of the best performing markets with lowest quality CCCs leading the way. Spreads are still tight at 3.41%.
Fundamentals don't seem to support the markets here as: "Corporate Defaults Jumped 80% In 2023 To 153."https://t.co/ip6s29jOPy pic.twitter.com/p9r8H1e94H
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) January 17, 2024
Investment grade and high yield corporate bond spreads continue to signal a high degree of confidence in earnings/cash flows. Recent stock market volatility is all about rates, not worries over profitability.$LQD $HYG $SPY pic.twitter.com/2HMADWKaf5
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) January 18, 2024
Per the @FT:
“US corporate bond markets are “on fire” as companies have sold a record $150bn of debt since the start of this month, the busiest opening to the year for more than three decades.”#economy #markets #investing #investors pic.twitter.com/mtL02XhVpA— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 21, 2024
Market-based probability of a March Fed rate cut has eased, but futures curve still pricing in large drop in fed funds rate this year pic.twitter.com/d0jf5O2MwL
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 23, 2024
Economists surveyed by @Bloomberg have revised their estimates for 2024 U.S. GDP growth higher over past six months, marking a turn from consistent downgrades in 2022 thru early 2023 pic.twitter.com/1kThzvsfqG
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 23, 2024
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high last Friday while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was still in a 20.4% drawdown. That's the largest Russell 2000 drawdown we've ever seen with the S&P 500 at an all-time high.
What happened following the 3 previous largest Russell 2000… pic.twitter.com/9Q2LYOUegc
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 22, 2024
THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY
Chart of the year so far… the MSCI China Index is about to go NEGATIVE since its 1992 inception
The Chinese economy is ~13x larger and an investment in it has gotten you the same return as if you put your cash under your mattress pic.twitter.com/4yqeYQRTRp
— Jake (@EconomPic) January 19, 2024
IShares China Small Cap ETF ($ECNS) vs. IShares India Small Cap ETF ($SMIN). pic.twitter.com/PRCs2V2FCp
— Jesse Livermore (@Jesse_Livermore) January 22, 2024
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