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"The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks global markets." cc: @FT pic.twitter.com/qszIPHrQBx — Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner)... Read More →

Relative to the S&P 500, just Energy, Communication Services, and Information Technology are outperforming in 2024. pic.twitter.com/OXeNLPoK9u — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) April 15, 2024 The S&P 500 bull is exhausted. Momentum has been fading fast, suggesting a rocky period is coming... Read More →

Another month of very solid hiring for the U.S. economy Payroll growth rose by 303,000 in March and private sector firms added 232,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% from 3.9% in February Average three-month private sector hiring:... Read More →

  The headline CPI index rose 0.44% in February and was up 3.2% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.2% pic.twitter.com/aXEwQHkpIv — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 12, 2024 China has provided a big disinflationary impulse driving... Read More →

The latest data shows that the UK has fallen into a technical recession. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. pic.twitter.com/gmBP0u6min — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 15, 2024 🇺🇸The US #economy is in... Read More →

US real GDP grew 3.1% throughout 2023, a significant increase from the 0.7% growth seen in 2022. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth actually decelerated from 7.1% to 5.8% Even as aggregate nominal demand slowed, improvements in aggregate supply meant real GDP... Read More →

2/The rapid decline in goods inflation, as sudden as its surge, credits the "Team Transitory" argument, which has always emphasized the supply shock as the main factor behind the price spike However, on the services side, inflation remains high, twice... Read More →

Headline inflation as measured by the CPI was 0.3% in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.1% in November. pic.twitter.com/124FDHOAiC — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 11, 2024 We estimate that Dec’s core PCE inflation was 0.14% m/m. 1-... Read More →

The never ending late cycle #economic environment continues with a relatively strong jobs report: > Health care & Government still the largest drivers of #job gains +77k & +49k > Revisions -35k for Sept.> Average hourly earnings up> Unemployment rate... Read More →

Here's a look at current yields across the Treasury curve compared to the peak closing yield seen for each bond/bill during the current tightening cycle. Yields have come down quite a bit, but we're still mostly inverted. pic.twitter.com/xFI3xrRpZI — Bespoke... Read More →