December 19, 2023

The never ending late cycle #economic environment continues with a relatively strong jobs report:

> Health care & Government still the largest drivers of #job gains +77k & +49k
> Revisions -35k for Sept.
> Average hourly earnings up
> Unemployment rate ticks down 3.7%@BLS_gov pic.twitter.com/QQ3lbUgWyH

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) December 8, 2023

Real average hourly earnings growth continues to make a comeback … in year/year terms, inflation-adjusted wage growth has held steady at +0.8% pic.twitter.com/7IheFHC698

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 13, 2023

Economists look at core because it is a much better predictor of future inflation. But the inflation that matters to people is overall and that was close to 0% for the second month in a row. And 3.1% over the last year. pic.twitter.com/YMifoUIu1T

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) December 12, 2023

P.S. Some people just follow me because they like this table. Here it is. pic.twitter.com/SJ8JqC5xak

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) December 12, 2023

BREAKING:

*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 75 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2024 TO 4.6%

*FED SAYS INFLATION 'EASED' OVER PAST YEAR BUT REMAINS ELEVATED

*FOMC MEDIAN 2024 PCE, CORE PCE FORECASTS DECLINE TO 2.4%https://t.co/sdnEUfSXIS

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) December 13, 2023

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Looking at both #ECB and #FOMC meetings, it seems that a clear divergence is emerging:

1- ECB will be in "reaction mode" despite:
*inflation normalizing quickly
*activity close to technical recession
*employment activity turning negative -> see PMIs

➡ they didn't…

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) December 14, 2023

In year/year terms, nominal retail sales improved in November; relative to history, pretty much in line with average growth pic.twitter.com/zFj2RVT0Xy

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 15, 2023

Imagine not checking the 10 yr. Treasury yield all year and taking a look today.

12/30/2022 the 10 yr. yield was 3.88%
12/19/2023 the 10 yr. yield is 3.90%

Only a massive range of 3.29% to 4.99%, but in the end, we are just back where we started the year. @FactSet pic.twitter.com/OcQnwtqjxL

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) December 19, 2023

The average OAS of the US Corporate bond index broke below 1% for the first time since Jan 2022. It may be hard for IG to outperform treasuries in 2024 from these levels. pic.twitter.com/lHPzdbQ9yW

— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 15, 2023

The S&P 500 Equal Weight has outperformed the cap-weighted index over the past one month. $SPX $SPY $RSP pic.twitter.com/5VnJQgKd79

— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) December 19, 2023

Almost all major US metros have now seen output recover from COVID!

Here's how real GDP has changed since 2019 among the largest metros:

🗽NY +3.7%
📽️LA +3.5%
💨Chicago +1.2%
🌉SF +10.8%
🤠Dallas +12.7%
🌸DC +5.2%
🚀Houston +6%
🍀Boston +7.8%
🦦Seattle +10.6%
🍑Atlanta +5.9% pic.twitter.com/lMcegTWrJx

— Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 (@JosephPolitano) December 11, 2023

The forward price-to-sales ratio of $AAPL since 2000.

Look at how high the p/s ratio is relative to history, then at the revenue growth rate. pic.twitter.com/UU725pj6un

— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) December 11, 2023

When was the last time the jobless rate fell below 4% and stayed there for 22 months?

More than a half-century ago pic.twitter.com/0bvLX0zOao

— Barry Ritholtz (@Ritholtz) December 12, 2023

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