Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance * 8th negative month in a row* negative last 10 of 11* lowest since May 2020#phillyfed https://t.co/b6sO4WjxjW — Carl Quintanilla 🔥 (@carlquintanilla) April 20, 2023 The Philadelphia Fed regional survey has always been the most important, in my view, of all... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Jobless claims rose by 228K last week, but the big news is the upward revision to the previous week’s numbers by 48K and an upward revision of 128K in continuing claims. pic.twitter.com/dwhZTAGtQ8 — Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) April 6, 2023 Jobs day... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance On a year/year basis, both headline and core #PCE continue to trend lower. pic.twitter.com/HsklzfhMlJ — Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) March 31, 2023 Core PCE inflation in February +4.6% over the previous 12 months+4.9% over the previous 3 months, annualized+4.5% over the previous... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The Fed raised rates 25 bps The decision was unanimous The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1% FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” pic.twitter.com/HUMdU1TaTQ — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 22, 2023... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The US 2Y treasury posted a 3-SIGMA MOVE, EACH DAY, SEVERAL TIMES IN A ROW. Statistical odds: Once every 50+ million years. This week's volatility predates most dinosaurs (assuming they traded treasuries). And that's not an exaggeration. Math by @DRBCurtis pic.twitter.com/P5oZ9U3AbO... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Look at that policy path repricing! From the gray bars at the beginning of last week to the blue bars today (now a sub<5% terminal rate and 100 bps of cuts starts in June), a huge shift in expectations for Fed... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance US 2y yields jump to almost 5% following hawkish Powell speech. Says ultimate rate peak likely to be higher than expected. pic.twitter.com/syiU86ZV3R — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 7, 2023 Yes, China Manufacturing PMI was the story yesterday, but looking under the... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance "Recession odds peaked in Nov'22 at 77% and have since declined to 24% this month (down 27ppt MoM), lowest since Jun'22." – BofA Global Fund Manager Survey pic.twitter.com/uUmcwNhnwE — Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) February 14, 2023 U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Top takeaways from January jobs report: 1) Job market is strong (better than thought!) +517,000 in January and up in 20222) Wage growth is slowing –>Fed wants this3) 3.4% unemployment –>lowest since 19694) Tech layoffs aren't triggering others (yet)https://t.co/0qbYi4RSwh pic.twitter.com/Cdzxzq1A0m —... Read More →

Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Strong headline GDP: 2.9% (ar) in Q4. Led by consumption (+2.1%) but also more volatile factors like inventory investment, net exports and government spending. Residential investment continued its plunge. Overall GDP basically at CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. pic.twitter.com/tlNDhxtLD8 — Jason Furman (@jasonfurman)... Read More →