March 29, 2023
Market Performance (YTD)
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
The Fed raised rates 25 bps
The decision was unanimous
The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1%
FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” pic.twitter.com/HUMdU1TaTQ
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 22, 2023
New Fed Interest Rate Projections:
Most FOMC participants see interest rates ending 2023 above 5% and decreasing for several subsequent years before hitting a long-run rate of 2.5%, but there's a wide range of estimates for interest rates in 2024/2025 pic.twitter.com/kn20vlgsPV
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) March 22, 2023
The pessimistic turn in US stocks began within a minute of Janet Yellen starting to speak
Her comments to the Senate began at 2:47pm, and the S&P 500 fell more than 2.5% over the subsequent 72 minutes pic.twitter.com/TXpB2DkESt
— Saleha Mohsin (@SalehaMohsin) March 22, 2023
Dunno if you've noticed, but the S&P 500 has closed between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for six straight days now.
And in that period, the distance between the two lines has been no more than 2%.
Technicals matter🧐 pic.twitter.com/qkodr2nY03
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 27, 2023
The market is bouncing around inside a P/E range of 15.5x to 18.5x. Don't be surprised if it keeps doing that. pic.twitter.com/bz7Go3v7Dg
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) March 23, 2023
APOLLO: “Deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600bn since the Fed began to raise interest rates, the biggest banking sector deposit outflow on record.” [Slok] pic.twitter.com/Oi8mJJsGOk
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 26, 2023
Where's all the money going that's being withdrawn from bank deposit accounts? Here's some of it: The two-week increase in outstanding U.S. money market funds has been the biggest since April 2020, with the total surging to a record $5.13 trillion: ICI data pic.twitter.com/MDSElVOTb4
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 23, 2023
🤓Latest update on the #Fed's balance sheet for week ended March 22
⬇️Discount window lending $110bn (down from $153bn in week prior)
⬆️Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): $54bn (up from $12bn)
⬆️Bridge-bank loans $180bn (up from $143bn) pic.twitter.com/iuSDpRazqX
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) March 23, 2023
The Fed lent $60B to foreign monetary authorities via repo agreements week
That's exactly the per-counterparty limit, which likely means someone maxed out their line
Might be the Swiss, but they have tons of dollars and access to swap lines so you'd think they wouldn't use this pic.twitter.com/RFTjoijWHd
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) March 23, 2023
European banks CDS (credit default swaps) are still far from 2008 crisis levels.
via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/4MiRM8rbLN
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 27, 2023
January Case Shiller home price data just hit. San Francisco prices are now down 17.1% from their post-COVID highs. Down 7.6% YoY. Seattle prices are down the 2nd most YoY at -5.1%.
Miami was the only city to see a MoM increase, now up 60.4% from pre-COVID levels. pic.twitter.com/rRf0wglrgS
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 28, 2023
From the @WSJ article on "A Tale of Two Housing Markets" in the US.#economy #econtwiter #housing #markets #realestate pic.twitter.com/21ZsnYLXFJ
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 28, 2023
"Fastest uptick in US private sector business activity for almost a year, as new orders return to growth, but selling price inflation accelerates" @SPGlobalPMI https://t.co/55WAGO6LUs pic.twitter.com/Jg902XadXT
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 24, 2023
Fighting excess inflation differs between Europe and the US because drives are different.
In the US, services account for nearly all of it.
In Europe, its mainly food and energy. pic.twitter.com/ZILibUDMym
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) March 26, 2023
🇪🇺 Euro area money supply growth is declining faster than expected (*before* the recent events).
M1 growth, including currency and overnight deposits, contracted by a record 2.7% in February.
Credit growth remained weak overall. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/QqGlFZZJBa
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) March 27, 2023
Absolutely insane statistic in FDIC Chairman Gruenberg's testimony — the 10 largest deposit accounts at Silicon Valley Bank held a combined $13.3 BILLION.
— Pete Schroeder (@peteschroeder) March 27, 2023
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