April 4, 2023
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
On a year/year basis, both headline and core #PCE continue to trend lower. pic.twitter.com/HsklzfhMlJ
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) March 31, 2023
Core PCE inflation in February
+4.6% over the previous 12 months
+4.9% over the previous 3 months, annualized
+4.5% over the previous 6 months, annualized pic.twitter.com/YdokzmQI0B— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 31, 2023
Lowest core PCE services ex-rent print since last July. Starting to look maybe possibly perhaps a trend pic.twitter.com/KdJDx3dvJg
— Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) March 31, 2023
Quits and openings have been telling somewhat different stories lately — quits have been high, but openings were much, much higher relative to their prepandemic average. Still true, but big drop in openings is maybe starting to bring the two indicators closer together again. pic.twitter.com/ktEEim2Raa
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) April 4, 2023
March ISM Manufacturing at 46.3 vs. 47.5 est. & 47.7 in prior month; new orders down to 44.3, prices paid back into contraction at 49.2, and production edged slightly higher (but still contracting at 47.8) … employment fell further into contraction (lowest since July 2020) pic.twitter.com/hwgIUT8r6f
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 3, 2023
JPM shows how at this rate US excess savings are likely to be totally depleted by June 2023. pic.twitter.com/pxwEQ3xAhf
— Alf (@MacroAlf) April 3, 2023
The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is now tracking growth of 1.7% for the first quarter, down from 3%-plus recently. https://t.co/lgQK57aYtw
— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) April 3, 2023
So far, 2023 has been the year of the big: In fact, the performance of the 10 largest stocks is almost the inverse of the next 490 stocks. It’s not exactly healthy leadership, but it’s doing its job tugging the overall index higher. pic.twitter.com/lsohJ8MbdF
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) April 3, 2023
APOLLO: “The rally in the S&P500 since the beginning of the year has been driven by 20 stocks, the market cap of the remaining 480 stocks has basically not gone up.” [Slok] $SPX pic.twitter.com/n28tvf5IGC
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 4, 2023
Tech’s PE has now jumped so much that it now trades at a 38% premium to the S&P. This is even higher than at the pandemic bubble peak in late 2021!
Wild to think that pre-Powell pivot in 2019, tech traded at just a 4% premium to the market. pic.twitter.com/37qLb3zWXl— Cameron Dawson (@CameronDawson) April 1, 2023
Biggest market news over the weekend was the surprise OPEC+ output cut of over 1mil barrels/day. Oil prices are up ~6%, and back to where they were before the bank messiness. pic.twitter.com/TwQfjcECtj
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) April 3, 2023
Increasing discussions on S&P 500 earnings calls focus on a potential 'Soft Landing,' while chatter about an impending 'Recession' declines. However, in absolute terms, 'Recession' still dominates the conversation: {Data from TA<GO>} pic.twitter.com/3pzhYt0BBP
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) April 3, 2023
S&P 500 performance around the end of Fed hiking cycles – GS pic.twitter.com/cMUWoP3C6Q
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) April 3, 2023
Well, look what we have here…
The 14+ year streak for US stock outperformance is OVER.
How long until crown is reclaimed? pic.twitter.com/qR89PJ38Qy
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) April 2, 2023
Really quite sad pic.twitter.com/evzRRJm1X8
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 1, 2023
Profit margins of US companies have reached levels not seen since the aftermath of World War II. pic.twitter.com/lu3YxOguZp
— Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) March 31, 2023
Is it reasonable to hope that the banking crisis stops at this point? The most recent evidence seems positive, says @johnauthers https://t.co/u4KqOkNc7O pic.twitter.com/02lIzJHUax
— Stuart Wallace (@StuartLWallace) April 3, 2023
Growth in bank deposits & money market funds (rebased to 100 at start): pic.twitter.com/lzeAKQldWo
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) April 3, 2023
This chart of money market mutual fund assets is breathtaking.. it's not just the angle of the slope but the size too, they've grown by $460b this year, that's >6x what all ETFs combined have taken in. pic.twitter.com/M851Cz6WLO
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 3, 2023
The S&P 500 has risen a year after the last Fed hike in 6 out of the last 9 hiking cycles
What's the common trend when stocks fall after a hiking cycle? ⬇ pic.twitter.com/5nU8DMxeFP
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) April 3, 2023
Jamie Dimon says the current economy is "pretty good but storm clouds ahead." pic.twitter.com/FiwTuZWez5
— Julia La Roche (@JuliaLaRoche) April 4, 2023
China's reopening continues to gain momentum pic.twitter.com/GUCzJYPcC1
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) March 30, 2023
Disclosure
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.