July 19, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The core CPI inflation rate remains relatively high mostly due to its rent components. But when you exclude shelter costs, the core rate dropped to 2.7% y/y in June, while the headline rate plunged to just 1.7%! pic.twitter.com/Yi6D7Tf6oc — Yardeni Research... Read More →
Market Commentary Q2 2023
Key Takeaways The market and economy are facing mixed signals. The yield curve and leading economic indicators are predicting recession. The negative effect of higher interest rates has yet to filter through the economy. Valuations have expanded significantly driven primarily by speculation, not fundamentals. The market is likely to become more volatile over the coming... Read More →
Market Commentary Q1 2023
Recessionary Pressures Building Our outlook for the economy continues to include a recession sometime this year or next. This view is supported by leading economic indicators that show significant slowing and are consistent with levels reached in the past three recessions (see red circles in accompanying chart, red vertical bars represent recession). Pushing the... Read More →
July 5, 2023
Market Performance (First Half of 2023) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance First half of 2023 performance The NASDAQ may be set for its best first half ever pic.twitter.com/ZgaJ43hIPK — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 29, 2023 "It has now been 3 months since we have seen a 3% correction... Read More →
June 21, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Below the surface, the earnings outlook is improving, and more importantly, the breadth of estimate revisions is improving. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 with rising estimates from three months ago is 47%, up from 27%. With inflation still... Read More →
June 7, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance BREAKING: The US added 339,000 jobs in May versus estimates of 195,000; US unemployment rate rises to 3.7% vs 3.4% https://t.co/QRyl0nqIJv pic.twitter.com/HK6EurOmaf — Bloomberg (@business) June 2, 2023 How many times does a report have to come in better than expected... Read More →
May 23, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Yields on one-month T-bills are about the highest since at least 2001 on debt-ceiling concerns: pic.twitter.com/Vc02k8xnE0 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 16, 2023 At this pace a June rate hike will be back on the table. Risk assets baiting #Powell /... Read More →
May 17, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance We have a 4-handle…Apr CPI was slightly cooler than expectations at 4.9% y/y vs. 5.0% est. Important piece is that Core Services ex-Shelter ("Supercore") was responsible for 1.26%, down from 1.40% last month. Pre-pandemic it was ~0.7%, more work to do,... Read More →
May 3, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance US economy is losing steam: The US GDP grew 1.1% in Q1 2023 ann, slower than the expected 1.9% & slower than previous quarter (2.6%). The main drag came from significantly lower inventory accumulation, while private consumption remained strong. pic.twitter.com/ezpuHeJuNC —... Read More →
April 25, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance * 8th negative month in a row* negative last 10 of 11* lowest since May 2020#phillyfed https://t.co/b6sO4WjxjW — Carl Quintanilla 🔥 (@carlquintanilla) April 20, 2023 The Philadelphia Fed regional survey has always been the most important, in my view, of all... Read More →