March 15, 2023

Market Performance (YTD)

Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

Look at that policy path repricing!
From the gray bars at the beginning of last week to the blue bars today (now a sub<5% terminal rate and 100 bps of cuts starts in June), a huge shift in expectations for Fed rates. pic.twitter.com/Qc8P0hQdZp

— Cameron Dawson (@CameronDawson) March 13, 2023

Just an interesting stat. I guess I would say that nothing good is going on when this type of stuff happens. Going to see a lot of firsts this year and next I suspect. pic.twitter.com/YMhCmerbu0

— Francois Trahan (@FrancoisTrahan) March 13, 2023

Feb headline CPI in-line at 0.4% (m/m) & 6.0% (y/y), core a bit higher at 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% est. Somewhat worrying trend is that core services ex-housing (aka "supercore") continued to move up m/m. That's what the Fed is 👀, futures say a 25bp hike has a 76% chance. pic.twitter.com/yggFvfQZvu

— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) March 14, 2023

Today's #JobsReport is the best of all worlds:
– slower but still robust job growth
– the 3rd increase in labor force participation in a row
– slower wage growth

Higher participation makes it easier for companies to fill open roles without inflationary wage increases.

— Julia Pollak (@juliaonjobs) March 10, 2023

JPMORGAN: SVB “was in a league of its own,” with an “unusually high reliance on corporate/VC funding .. and very low reliance on stickier retail deposits .. Bottom line: $SIVB carved out a distinct and riskier niche .. setting itself up for large potential capital shortfalls ..” pic.twitter.com/8JRHRk1YXe

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 12, 2023

SVB is/was not like the others because a prudent bank hedges interest rate risks. SVB did not.

Chart from JPAM / Michael Cembalest pic.twitter.com/qfm6MbM0Oz

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) March 11, 2023

This is a roadmap to why some regional banks were selling off disproportionately today. This is a measure of unrealized losses on banks' available for sale securities as a proportion of the firms' equity. via @DavidInglesTV pic.twitter.com/Eknp5pXlV7

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 14, 2023

Today's surge in U.S. high-yield bond spreads was the biggest one day pop since March 2020. pic.twitter.com/eP5QLqeSqC

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 14, 2023

Here's an explainer on the term facility that the Fed just rolled out pic.twitter.com/q46ITyomZ9

— Ben Eisen (@BenEisen) March 12, 2023

Zooming out, it's the 2nd worst day of underperformance since the financial crisis pic.twitter.com/xBsGTMqEZk

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 13, 2023

I've removed the paywall on this one https://t.co/JwKSTcndM3

— Marc Rubinstein (@MarcRuby) March 10, 2023

Jobs growth has now exceeded consensus forecasts 11 months in a row, which should basically be impossible.

Probability = 0.5^11 = an 0.05% chance.

Or these aren't independent draws, and too many have underestimated this economy for too long. (Not me.)https://t.co/1rezYFKclN

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 10, 2023

Disclosure
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