March 8, 2023
Market Performance (YTD)
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
US 2y yields jump to almost 5% following hawkish Powell speech. Says ultimate rate peak likely to be higher than expected. pic.twitter.com/syiU86ZV3R
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 7, 2023
Yes, China Manufacturing PMI was the story yesterday, but looking under the hood things are improving across the globe.
13 out of 20 countries we track increased last month, with 9 out of 20 above 50 (vs. 7 last month).
Has manufacturing bottomed? Very well could have. pic.twitter.com/IA1ncYoAu1
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 2, 2023
Super strong February PMIs in #China, activity components are at a record high in over 13 years pic.twitter.com/D4HHswPjvH
— Patrick Zweifel (@PkZweifel) March 1, 2023
If you define turn as "sales no longer going down", then maybe. If you define it as "recovering", then no. Demand bounced a bit on the back of the drop in mortgage rates from early Nov-late Jan, but it has now reversed. Result below. Can't think why they didn't run this chart https://t.co/XbGKUw29Ht pic.twitter.com/A1jPpgjxqi
— Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) March 1, 2023
At mortgage applications for purchase drops to 28-year lows, the divergence to New Home Sales grows. How is that possible? Is it cash buyers, as we saw post CV-19 or as I suspect, errant seasonal adjustments and the fact that new sales don't reflect cancellations? #stocks pic.twitter.com/j5p68KNIGC
— Julian Brigden (@JulianMI2) March 1, 2023
Goldman Sachs: 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate pic.twitter.com/rdj28oyvyI
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) March 1, 2023
Interest expenses as a percentage of corporate cash flows, via JPMorgan.
(Alternate title: why higher interest rates haven't yet sparked a massive wave of defaults. Borrowers locked in lower rates and termed out theirdebt. The great rate 'reset' has yet to happen). pic.twitter.com/OcSDORxZWl
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) March 1, 2023
Alarms are going off about earnings quality 🚨 https://t.co/cDPKCP47eo pic.twitter.com/mmo8AUEtoS
— TKer (@TKerLLC) March 1, 2023
Demand for U.S. workers shows signs of slowing – WSJ pic.twitter.com/mOZHBLzrdZ
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) March 2, 2023
Equity risk premiums sit near a 15- year low. It is a signficant risk for investors, with our S&P 500 Earnings Indicator forecasts negative EPS growth in 2023 -Marketdesk pic.twitter.com/gkOLNq0nkO
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 3, 2023
Netherlands, France, the US and Switzerland are all markets trading at valuations well above levels consistent with current inflation conditions. pic.twitter.com/NMHI8IT9md
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) March 3, 2023
Some historical perspectives: pic.twitter.com/9JI8xIUvXq
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) March 6, 2023
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