November 1, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance 52% of SPX cos have reported Q3 results @FactSet: 71% EPS beat rate68% rev beat rateBlended earnings growth: +2.2%, lowest since 3Q202:1 negative:positive guidance (28 to 14) Ex-Energy, SPX reporting a -5.1% EPS growth rate pic.twitter.com/HPZGnrfW5u — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT... Read More →
October 26, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance S&P Home price index fell 1.32% month/month. Year/year prices are still up 13% – but housing dynamics have changed with higher mortgage rates. pic.twitter.com/FP8kwZ9LaV — Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) October 25, 2022 US Home Prices (Case-Shiller) MoM% Change — Table: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/lDx5FXVsGR... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q3 2022
Economy: Surprisingly Strong but Tailwinds Fading Growth has been more resilient than expected this year, despite the steepest Fed hiking cycle on record. Continued growth is a reminder that monetary policy works on a lag… typically taking hold 6-18 months after the first rate hike. In addition, healthy household balance sheets, strong labor markets, and... Read More →
October 18, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Another hot inflation read, this one led by notably higher core inflation. Core inflation up 6.6% & 0.6% on a y/y & m/m basis, respectively. Stock futures flipped from up +1% to down 2% in a jiffy. pic.twitter.com/VgAYSrRVuc — Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat)... Read More →
October 12, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Normally a 263,000 gain in new jobs and 3.5% unemployment is great news for the economy. These are not normal times. Labor market not cooling fast enough to stop rapid Fed rate hikes aimed at taming high inflation. And thus odds... Read More →
October 5, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Steep declines: "This year’s pullback outpaces steep declines seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis & the 2020 pandemic, based on the drop in market value of the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index & the MSCI All-Country World Stocks Index combined". [Bloomberg] pic.twitter.com/Ic5DrIyfgp —... Read More →
September 28, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The Fed: *Raises rates by three-quarters of a point to 3-3.25%*Projects 4.4% rates at the end of 2022, suggesting a 75 and a 50*Rates climb to 4.6% next year (up from 3.8%) *Sees unemployment rising to 4.4% next year This is... Read More →
September 21, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance CPI: Shelter came in hotter. As did food at home. The offset from a decline in gasoline by 10.6% wasn't enough. pic.twitter.com/kP3dzh2Dvs — Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@ayeshatariq) September 13, 2022 Here's a chart of year-on-year CPI inflation, broken down by major... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q2 2022
Market Performance Reflects Higher Likelihood of Recession It was hard to hide in Q2. Stocks and bonds both recorded historically bad quarters as inflation continued to march higher and the Fed began aggressively hiking rates. Higher interest rates and abrupt rhetoric changes by Fed Chair Powell had the immediate effect of pushing down stock multiples... Read More →
September 7, 2022
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance The 60/40 portfolio is running a 14% loss YTD. One of the main goals of adding bonds to a portfolio is to reduce the risk of major drawdowns in equities. The 60/40 has prevented deeper losses from equities alone, but it's... Read More →