April 25, 2023
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
* 8th negative month in a row
* negative last 10 of 11
* lowest since May 2020#phillyfed https://t.co/b6sO4WjxjW— Carl Quintanilla 🔥 (@carlquintanilla) April 20, 2023
The Philadelphia Fed regional survey has always been the most important, in my view, of all the regionals. It's never been this low without the US being in a recession. Could be different this time, survey data are flaky particularly around bank crises, etc…and yet. pic.twitter.com/6byU4jUsYW
— Stephen Miran (@SteveMiran) April 20, 2023
US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior mgr for business cycle indicators: https://t.co/E4hF4xEYNA pic.twitter.com/SvpDxhMIFb
— James Picerno (@jpicerno) April 20, 2023
% of the yield curve that is inverted has fallen to 78% from over 90% in early March.
But that doesn't mean the risk of recession is fading. This almost always happens just before a recession. pic.twitter.com/jWXo0lNurf— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) April 20, 2023
🇺🇸 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence: The spread between current situation and expectations reached -83 (lowest since March 2001 ⚠)https://t.co/SXisoMZQGi pic.twitter.com/2IdhVB95vi
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 25, 2023
Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.865m for the week of Apr 7, above the est of 1.825m. These are now in-line with pre-pandemic levels and where they were before the Fed retired transitory in Nov 2021. pic.twitter.com/xY8UPTV80t
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) April 20, 2023
jobless claims approaching 250k reminded me of this from last week: https://t.co/ZR52MNikky
— Carl Quintanilla 🔥 (@carlquintanilla) April 20, 2023
TD Securities spots a red flag not seen since 2007 coming for the $10 trillion corporate bond market.https://t.co/xOjsQst7kR pic.twitter.com/uLecOa6qQ9
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) April 19, 2023
BofA global fund manager survey: Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds drops to its lowest level since the global financial crisis, via Michael Hartnett pic.twitter.com/W10Swa0zy9
— Jessica Menton (@JessicaMenton) April 18, 2023
I was about to write a long-winded/detailed response about construction backlogs/employment, but the real answer is this: pic.twitter.com/c74QjfFJcY
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) April 21, 2023
🇪🇺 The mother of all ECB charts.
Several measures of underlying inflation recorded a first tentative decline in March, from record high levels, including median and super core. If core inflation stabilises and starts declining around summer, it changes everything for the ECB. pic.twitter.com/JsLouIckUA— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 19, 2023
Biggest driver was food/non-alcoholic drinks inflation highest since 1977: 19.1%
That'll hurt poorest households the most because they spend more on essentials
And interesting that bread was a big driver within food because…
— Lizzy Burden (@lizzzburden) April 19, 2023
🇪🇺 Euro area PMIs consistent with a manufacturing recession, booming services, and easing price pressures. Deal with that! 🧵 pic.twitter.com/Xcsq4MquNA
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 21, 2023
APOLLO: “US households are in excellent shape .. household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s .. If the unemployment rate rises, consumer spending will slow down, but the starting point for US households is very strong.” [Slok] pic.twitter.com/f1uhS6KhTL
— Carl Quintanilla 🔥 (@carlquintanilla) April 20, 2023
US 6-Month CDS a Bit Higher Again Today: https://t.co/GicMPL2fwo pic.twitter.com/OWYP9DyvvV
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) April 25, 2023
20 stocks explain the gains in the S&P 500 this year!!! Not exactly an easy backdrop for portfolio managers to operate in. Also, this shows just how narrow this rally has been which is not exactly the hallmark of a healthy bull market. pic.twitter.com/mbqauKMbWO
— Francois Trahan (@FrancoisTrahan) April 20, 2023
The S&P 500 in 2023 so far … by @VisualCap pic.twitter.com/eDYk3cbP2Y
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 24, 2023
Disclosure
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