November 7, 2023
Here's a look at current yields across the Treasury curve compared to the peak closing yield seen for each bond/bill during the current tightening cycle. Yields have come down quite a bit, but we're still mostly inverted. pic.twitter.com/xFI3xrRpZI — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 24, 2023 The Conference Board marks a recession trigger when the growth rate... Read More →
October 31, 2023
Headline inflation in the PCE index was 0.36% in September from August The 12-month PCE inflation rate held steady at 3.4% 6-month annualized rate: +3.1% (vs 2.6% in Aug)3-month annualized rate: +3.8% (vs 3.1% in Aug) pic.twitter.com/QGapKKO2H5 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 27, 2023 (2/2) To get a view of what's really driving GDP under... Read More →
October 17, 2023
First, to visualize core inflation itself, recent reversal aside, we see 6-month trending downward nicely within 2023. Target for CPI is more like 2.5% (long story), and that we comfortably have something in lower half of 3% already with a strong economy is very comforting. /2 pic.twitter.com/DvoooYgqUw — Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) October 12, 2023 September... Read More →
Market Commentary 3Q 2023
KEY TAKEAWAYS Leading Indicators Still Point to Recession Deficits and Debt Back in Focus Compelling Risk/Reward for Bonds Stocks Need Broader Fundamental Support Focus on Protecting Capital ECONOMY – LEADING INDICATORS POINT TO RECESSION We continue to believe that economic growth is slowing and that higher interest rates will ultimately result in a recession.... Read More →
October 3, 2023
Aside from oil and the Energy sector, it was a bad quarter for major asset classes. pic.twitter.com/sonk429g0q — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 29, 2023 Headline PCE inflation was 3.5% over the 12 months ended August The PCE price index was +3.2% at a three-month annualized rate (highest in five months) +2.6% at a six-month annualized rate... Read More →
September 26, 2023
#FOMC pause, summary of economic projections pretty in-line with expectations: GDP up, unemployment rate down, inflation roughly in-line, BUT they took next year's #Fed funds for forecast up trying to get markets to see higher for longer in bond pricing.https://t.co/V2cVDxgLf5 pic.twitter.com/zCKrwuRdZZ — Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) September 20, 2023 Nice "higher for longer" chart from... Read More →
September 13, 2023
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia will create a “significant supply shortfall.” with global oil markets facing a deficit of 1.2 million barrels: IEA https://t.co/aEJTwzU2zU pic.twitter.com/V50uwhQ8K0 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 13, 2023 After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced inflation on a YoY... Read More →
August 24, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance BREAKING: Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Index soars to 5.03% pic.twitter.com/ssPnrKJC1Q — Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) August 15, 2023 What a monthly mortgage payment would look like for a new home buyer in the US, based on the median existing home price and the... Read More →
August 9, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance There has been an absolutely wild divergence in macro data surprises in the past few months and I am old enough to know that there is no such thing as decoupling… pic.twitter.com/GwE5BIMpkH — Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) August 2, 2023 Key takeaways... Read More →
August 2, 2023
Market Performance (YTD) Source: YCharts Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Shorter Powell -FOMC believes policy is restrictive-Doesn’t see Fed cutting this year-Sees 2% inflation w/out big job losses-Staff no longer forecast recession Market hears you’re done, soft landing hopes and dreams. — Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) July 26, 2023 The upper bound... Read More →