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Market Commentary
Q1 2018

Early or Late Cycle? There has been a great deal of debate recently over where we are in the business cycle given the recent acceleration of economic growth. Does this expansion’s anemic growth (slowest on record) mean we have avoided the tendency to “overheat”? If so, what is the likelihood of breaking the previous record...
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Market Commentary
Q4 2017

2017 was an outstanding year for equities. Global growth was in sync for the first time since the 2008 recession with the world’s 45 largest economies all in expansion mode. This previously occurred from 2004 to 2007, a period also very good for stocks. Broad appreciation of global equities was supported by accelerated earnings growth...
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Market Commentary
Q3 2017

Nuclear threats from North Korea, natural disasters Harvey and Irma, and tragedies in Charlottesville and Las Vegas all served as proof that stocks want to go up, despite the odds. Indeed, the 3rd quarter was chock full of potential pitfalls for the market. What the market was focused on however, was stronger fundamentals, pushing stocks...
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Will the Markets Stay Calm? Short VIX Investors Hope So.

There are many fundamental reasons stocks have behaved well lately. Earnings are strong and appear to be getting stronger. Economic growth is accelerating and in-sync globally for the first time since the post-financial crisis bounce. And of course, global monetary stimulus continues to be highly stimulative and supportive of higher asset prices. The confluence of...
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Market Commentary
Q2 2017

After a strong first quarter of 2017, the second quarter was even better, particularly for non-US equities that played catch-up to the steady upward move in US stocks. While leadership within stocks has oscillated between cyclical and defensive sectors, volatility has primarily been a function of political noise rather than economic or earnings uncertainty, both...
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Clock is Ticking on Tax Reform

The most recent GDP print of 0.7% growth underscores the real need for economic reforms. Subpar growth last quarter was primarily a function of slower consumer spending even though business investment picked up materially since the election. Economic growth of 2%, which was the average over the last 8 years, is not high enough to...
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