Market Performance For The Prior Week
The Good News
Inflation finally didn’t come in higher than expectations
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) September 14, 2021
And investors are getting less concerned about overly stubborn inflation
“Inflation expected to fall for the first time since May’20 ..” — B of A Fund Mgr Survey pic.twitter.com/uzxzGCYsOD
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 14, 2021
The Bad News
The economic surprise index continues to fall
Hadn't realized how deeply negative it had gotten. https://t.co/ReuGOcCGWt
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) September 13, 2021
And banks continue to warn of slower growth
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) September 10, 2021
The State Of The Market
There seems to be a bit more hesitancy in the market over the past couple of weeks
The time of the year is probably part of the reason
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) September 13, 2021
Stocks being expensive is probably another reason
Source: Lance Roberts
Wild: The annualized inflow to global stocks in 2021 ($1tn) is greater than cumulative inflow of prior 20 years ($0.8tn between 2001 & 2020) pic.twitter.com/nyfXBCO6K0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 10, 2021
And banks are issuing warning signals.. but be weary of short term forecasts/signals
Everyone has a foot out the door.
Bob Farrell's Rule #9:
"When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen."
Let's look back in a few months to see what happened.📅 pic.twitter.com/KbbzRDwC6s
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) September 9, 2021
Because if you look back, these types of headlines have always been prevalent
Be careful using clickbait articles for investment advice pic.twitter.com/Y1SNeJMBvr
— George Maroudas (@ChicagoAdvisor) September 13, 2021
Fun fact: If you Google "stock market overvalued [insert year]", you can find headlines that would be indistinguishable from the ones we see today.
For example, here are the top results for "stock market overvalued 2012/2013"
Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/wvVaaZyiJB
— Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) September 9, 2021
So what’s a bullish signal in a market full of seemingly bearish news?
"Stock valuations are as cheap as ever relative to junk." A fascinating chart by Brian Reynolds of Reynolds Strategy, looking at the S&P 500 earnings yield as a percent of junk-bond yields. pic.twitter.com/KgSXsxdCQd
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 13, 2021
Sure, the S&P 500 has risen quite a bit this year. Yet earnings estimates can explain the entire gain and then some, according to Truist Wealth. See my Chart of the Day. pic.twitter.com/BaDkNkYrXj
— Dave Wilson's Chart & Stock of the Day + (@TheOneDave) September 8, 2021
Story Of The Week
Walmart isn’t partnering with the digital currency Litecoin, despite a fake news release that briefly tripped up several news outlets and social media users on Monday. @AP has the facts. https://t.co/HeFE9KRnFV
— AP Fact Check (@APFactCheck) September 13, 2021
Incontrovertible proof that markets are perfectly efficient.
"Oh my god Litecoin is partnering with Walmart. Buy."
"Nevermind. Sell." pic.twitter.com/5WmKRoGbgX
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) September 13, 2021
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