November 9, 2022

Market Performance (YTD)

Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

How much did markets dislike Powell's presser today? It was the worst last 90 minutes of a Fed Day for the S&P (-3.2%) since 1994 (when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the day of the meeting).

Read our full analysis in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/MKhmUCp8DC pic.twitter.com/H5uouP2yqz

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 2, 2022

And I see why. The Fed added this entire section to its statement basically justifying a slowdown in rate increases. Yay stocks!!! pic.twitter.com/h4BSk2IYSZ

— Dion Rabouin 🇺🇸 (@DionRabouin) November 2, 2022

Chair Powell takeaways:

– Big rate increases could slow in Dec or shortly after
– But rates will go higher than prior forecast
– And stay there
– His message was blunt: "I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done."
– Upshot: This was not a pivot.

— Jeanna Smialek (@jeannasmialek) November 2, 2022

Fascinating moment in the presser. A journalist wrongly misleads Powell into thinking the market was still rallying and we're all getting real time insight into what he thinks about that… He's leaning hard against it.

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) November 2, 2022

The economy gained a surprisingly strong 261,000 new jobs in October, underscoring the persistent strength of a labor market that the Federal Reserve worries will exacerbate high inflation. https://t.co/a7r8QWLhns pic.twitter.com/uFrtXHzOcb

— MarketWatch Economy (@MKTWeconomics) November 4, 2022

JUST IN: The US economy added 261k jobs in October, higher than expected.

Stay tuned for analysis from @jasonfurman. pic.twitter.com/4YB7R5Cmht

— Peterson Institute (@PIIE) November 4, 2022

On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings growth has cooled markedly — up 4.7% in October, vs 5.6% in March. A lot of that slowdown came earlier this year, however — more recently, growth has been bouncing along at an annual rate of around 4%. pic.twitter.com/nkqLOGhxm0

— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) November 4, 2022

“.. eight of 10 chief human resources officer said they’re cutting or freezing hiring,” says a ⁦@PwCUS⁩ survey.

(via @business ⁦@JohnSpall247⁩) #NFP pic.twitter.com/Mfv0KV8tgJ

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 2, 2022

Layoffs announced in the last day:

– Lyft 13% of workers
– Opendoor 18%
– Stripe 14%
– Chime 12%
– Twitter 50%
– Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) November 3, 2022

Here are the updated 3Q22 through 2Q23 S&P 500 EPS growth expectations w/ and w/out the Energy sector.

1H23 EPS growth ests are clearly negative and going lower.
$SPY $XLE pic.twitter.com/8z9ULs7MG7

— The Earnings Scout (@EarningsScout) November 8, 2022

U.S. #municipal #bonds are yielding the most in over 10 yrs. at 4.18%. Using the highest federal tax bracket of 37%, the tax equivalent yield is ~7%.

To find a ~7% yield right now, you would be looking at BBB/BB corporates bonds.

High quality bond #income 👍 @Factset pic.twitter.com/nL5ny2IdkC

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) November 7, 2022

Miss one or the other but not both: pic.twitter.com/3srpke6Syl

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 7, 2022

Disclosure

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