November 16, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
Huge post-CPI price action
S&P +5.3% = best day since Apr 2020
Nasdaq +7% = the best day since 2020
5yr yield biggest 1-day drop since 2009
DXY -2.25% = the worst day since 2015— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) November 10, 2022
This was only the 18th time since the year 2000 the S&P 500 has been up 5% or more in a day
That's just 0.3% of all trading days this century
It's a rare occurrence is what I'm trying to say
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) November 10, 2022
US CPI for October pic.twitter.com/8j4C3zQREq
— Traderade (@TraderadeTweets) November 10, 2022
Lags in shelter now lead the measure to overstate "spot" core inflation by ~20bp.
Health insurance is the opposite as of October because CPI shifted from 2020 to 2021 utilization. This subtracts ~8bp from core inflation & will for 11 more months.
FYI does not affect PCE infl. pic.twitter.com/ULGEEGpndr
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) November 10, 2022
Super interesting note about CPI from my man Lou Brien at DRW Trading. Medical care had its biggest monthly drop in 50 years. pic.twitter.com/OfcLOuBYPp
— Dion Rabouin 🇺🇸 (@DionRabouin) November 10, 2022
Wow, think this #CPI report is soft, wait until the decline in the #housing market catches up.
"The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase." @BLS_gov
Also before getting to giddy, remember usually #CPI rolls over in recessions. @stlouisfed pic.twitter.com/1FZ9kWJEXG
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) November 10, 2022
Year-on-year rent growth hits an eye-watering 7.5% this month—the highest since 1982.
Official data tends to lag the direction of data on new leases from private companies, so hopefully price growth should start slowing soon. pic.twitter.com/6PfuVWHtrE
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) November 10, 2022
If these are what Bostic calls “glimmers of hope,” wait til you see “clear and convincing.”@AtlantaFed @OphirGottlieb https://t.co/UQ4z1dySin pic.twitter.com/6PvUYwUWol
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 15, 2022
It's not the size of the debt, it's the servicability of the debt that matters.
Latest from NY. Fed Household Debt & Credit report says average household has managed debt extremely well throughout 2022, #inflation be darned. #Macro #ConsumerSpending pic.twitter.com/Y7z8vOh9OH
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 15, 2022
Wage growth came in a bit hotter in October, +6.4% per @AtlantaFed wage tracker pic.twitter.com/grXcfSG4RM
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 11, 2022
"The labor force is currently 4 million below the pre-pandemic trend," which is high considering that the total number of unemployed is 6 million. "The bottom line is that it is difficult to find workers…and the upward pressure on wages will likely continue:" Apollo's Slok pic.twitter.com/cajelZ2M7x
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 15, 2022
Here's an updated chart of YoY CPI with the October number included. We include the forward path that the YoY number would take based on constant MoM prints between -0.1% and +0.7%. pic.twitter.com/ogt8tyaovi
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 10, 2022
Here's an updated look at YoY CPI with potential paths going out to November 2023 based on constant MoM prints between -0.1% and +0.7%. Note that the YoY CPI number won't drop below 7% by year end unless we see deflation over the next two months. pic.twitter.com/Drwln2Q45j
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 10, 2022
🇺🇸PPI cooler than expected…
🟢Headline: +0.2% m/m
🟢Core: +0.2% m/m🟡Goods +0.6%
▶️Food +0.5%
▶️Energy +2.7% (⛽️)
▶️Core -0.1%: first⬇️since May'20✅✅Services -0.1%: first⬇️since Nov'20
⏩Gradual disinflation
🔥PPI 8.0% y/y (-0.4pt)
🔥Core 5.4% y/y (-0.2pt) pic.twitter.com/FPR3bLTG2H— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) November 15, 2022
Forward EPS estimates still coming down. Still implies growth. @FactSet pic.twitter.com/NzaRCGiweV
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 11, 2022
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