Market Performance (YTD)
Below the surface, the earnings outlook is improving, and more importantly, the breadth of estimate revisions is improving. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 with rising estimates from three months ago is 47%, up from 27%. With inflation still at 5% in the US, the quality… pic.twitter.com/KayJJ13JDO
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 12, 2023
Conflicting signals: The improvement in earnings revisions is in stark contrast to the ongoing decline in the Purchasing Managers Survey (ISM). I’m not sure what to make of this, or how this divergence will be resolved. pic.twitter.com/pAovbrF2HW
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 13, 2023
CPI Scorecard for May 2023 pic.twitter.com/tzAo6onxkN
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) June 13, 2023
This is the most important chart for Fed watchers.
Services (excluding rent) rose 4.2% year over year, now almost in line with headline CPI.
There's your main case for a skip/pause/whatever pic.twitter.com/inOEDBoN2w
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) June 13, 2023
Reall remarkable how much inflation breadth has narrowed. Almost all of the monthly increase was due to housing and autos. Everything outside the top 5 contributors reigned supreme last year (strong breadth) and is now nonexistent (weak breadth) pic.twitter.com/o73iy1Gn2p
— Stephen Miran (@SteveMiran) June 13, 2023
We're definitely past peak rent inflation now—headline year-on-year CPI rent growth decelerated again this month, and given the path of leading indicators from data on new leases, we should expect more decelerations going forward. pic.twitter.com/RiKWpYkLTA
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) June 13, 2023
YoY CPI is set to dip down to the low 3s when the June numbers come out in mid-July.
Here's a look at where CPI would be out to April 2024 based on constant MoM prints from 0.0%-0.8% (non-seasonally adjusted): pic.twitter.com/DXKf0ZfsrK
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 14, 2023
As usual these high frequency data releases have something for everyone to dig their teeth into.
I cribbed this from @jasonfurman which provides great context.
The last item (core services ex-shelter) is what’s giving the bulls something to run with. pic.twitter.com/Ewh8vmbQYr
— David Cervantes (@pinebrookcap) June 13, 2023
So, the Fed expects to raise interest rates higher this year while also projecting inflation will be lower, GDP will be higher, and unemployment will be lower. Lollipops and rainbows for everyone, I guess #FOMC pic.twitter.com/D4HR1NruUS
— Dion Rabouin 🏔 👑 🏆 (4-1) (@DionRabouin) June 14, 2023
I'll be interested in how this housing start spike is explained. Highest MoM net since 1990. And the widest spread over permits since the 90s as well. pic.twitter.com/1bmNjh3RPa
— Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) June 20, 2023
Two of the three leading industries in US large caps have now reached new highs. This doesn’t happen in bear markets. pic.twitter.com/sDkyiRz0D7
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) June 16, 2023
Number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year:
2017: 203 stocks (40%)
2019: 328 stocks (65%)
2020: 60 stocks (12%)
2021: 258 stocks (52%)
2023: 7 stocks (~1%)
This isn't a normal bull market https://t.co/WOv1JbPvBc
— Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) June 20, 2023
Market breadth continues to improve. The majority of S&P 500 stocks are above their moving average price on short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.
Trends are strongest within the Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrial sectors. pic.twitter.com/drIyXldvv4
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) June 20, 2023
Morgan Stanley's Wilson: "If second half growth re-accelerates as expected, then the bullish narrative being used to support equity prices will be proven correct. If not, many investors may be in for a rude awakening given the very big reach for risk we are seeing.”
— Alexandra Semenova (@alexandraandnyc) June 20, 2023
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 12, 2023
Empire Manufacturing Prices Paid and Prices Received plunging. pic.twitter.com/ne6QjwS0rs
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 19, 2023
It's been a long road, but the 2-Year Treasury yield is now above y/y CPI. While yields are forward-looking & realized inflation is backward-looking, it's a notable cross ahead of a Fed meeting. pic.twitter.com/9ZRqviwdec
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 13, 2023
Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings growth now in positive year/year territory for first time since March 2021 pic.twitter.com/z7bJGMeaDY
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 14, 2023
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