July 5, 2023
Market Performance (First Half of 2023)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
First half of 2023 performance
The NASDAQ may be set for its best first half ever pic.twitter.com/ZgaJ43hIPK
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 29, 2023
"It has now been 3 months since we have seen a 3% correction in the S+P, one of the longest stretches since WW2."
– NatAlliance, citing Deutsche $SPX pic.twitter.com/lWpS7FzrDe
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 27, 2023
The Bloomberg ECO US Surprise Index has risen to the highest since February 2021. “These just aren’t the sorts of numbers you see in an economy careering toward a recession.” https://t.co/6kNJJTzBWe pic.twitter.com/128D8RFUGs
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 28, 2023
Q1 GDP was revised meaningfully higher to 2.0% vs the prior est of 1.3%, mostly due to consumer spending & net exports revisions. Treasury yields are up 5-10bps on the morning data. pic.twitter.com/HFc5UPTxAs
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 29, 2023
TRAVEL UPDATE: Yesterday, TSA Officers nationwide screened 2,883,595 individuals – beating our previous travel record of 2,882,915 on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2019. This is the highest number of passengers the agency has screened on record.
— TSA (@TSA) July 1, 2023
Initial jobless claims fell to 239k, below the estimate of 265k. Could be some state idiosyncrasies driving this, time will tell in the trend… pic.twitter.com/yeIsjlChzE
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 29, 2023
Home prices overall jumped for the second straight month. pic.twitter.com/zCOhraDJLh
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) June 27, 2023
US Home Price Appreciation by City… pic.twitter.com/gSrtUfFUIn
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 27, 2023
🇺🇸New homes sales surge 12.2% to 763k (saar) in May
🏘️Gains in all regions led by South & West
🔥Sales +25.9% y/y
▶️Inventories falling to 6.7 months: low since Feb '22: will support construction
⤵️Median price $416k: -7.6% y/y but +25% vs pre-Covid & sequential momentum hot pic.twitter.com/BTMtA0JObC
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) June 27, 2023
This 👇. I don’t think housing market has bottomed. As an airbnb host myself, I experienced this and am already seeing houses bought during pandemic being listed in the market again. When the labor market softens more and ppl have to return to office, more chills will be felt. https://t.co/pwj576RgBG
— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) June 27, 2023
🇺🇸Durable goods #orders solid with 1.7% gain in May inflated by aircraft, but strong autos, machinery & metals
✅Orders +1.7%
✅Core capital gds +0.7%✅Shipments 1.7%
✅Core shipments +0.2%🟡Core Orders stable +2.1% y/y
🟡Core Shipments cooling +3.3% y/y: low since Feb'21 pic.twitter.com/mIlU1M2lMK— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) June 27, 2023
Although headline durable goods orders significantly beat expectations, nondefense capital goods ex aircraft shipments (which feeds into GDP) met expectations while April’s reading was revised down. pic.twitter.com/yEaFA9EU4C
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) June 27, 2023
There was a notable jump higher in New Orders across most of the regional Fed surveys in June, though the overall value is still negative and has been for a while, despite resilient econ data. In any event, something to watch… pic.twitter.com/huRMgMnksb
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 27, 2023
Looks like a trend.
Following the Dallas Fed yesterday and most of the other regional Fed reports this month, the Prices Paid component of the Richmond Fed declined to a multi-year low in June. pic.twitter.com/AGBu8si2gt
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 27, 2023
I don't think this is getting enough attention right now pic.twitter.com/BARMH9TWIv
— Brad Hargreaves (@bhargreaves) June 28, 2023
Mega-Cap Divergence update:
Triggered on 4/26/23…Breadth tracked in line with previous negative cases until June.
Now, tracking exactly in line with past positive cases (i.e. breadth expansion + rally).@3F_Research https://t.co/O5jFiWHR2Q pic.twitter.com/2u9LmxwUnW
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) July 5, 2023
Valuations have risen over the last 6-9 mos (blue), while inflation-adj interest rates stayed elevated at 1-1.5% (magenta, inverted). Higher rates typically ⬇️ the present value of future CFs & ⬇️ valuations. Relationship is out of whack, watching for mean reversion in one or… pic.twitter.com/xnvLuC2GdB
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 27, 2023
Weekly data for corporate bankruptcy filings has started to meaningfully deteriorate in recent weeks: Apollo's Torsten Slok pic.twitter.com/hk54EcTy5j
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 28, 2023
🇺🇸The US yield curve broke below the March low, and is the most inverted since '81
The inversion will deepen as:
– ST yields are poised to rise as markets pushes further out rate cuts expectations
– LT yields will either move slowly higher or drop depending on growth
@saxobank pic.twitter.com/SUqgEhWZnY— Althea Spinozzi (@Altheaspinozzi) July 3, 2023
The US having stronger growth than any major high-income country (except Australia) while having lower inflation rates than Japan is genuinely insane
Even South Korea, who specializes in pandemic-era boom industries (chips, cars, appliances, etc) has seen less growth than the US https://t.co/Vp289mJLD5
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) June 27, 2023
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