January 18, 2023

Market Performance (YTD)

Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

World Bank Cuts 2023 Forecasts and Warns of Global Recession https://t.co/1fFuyva5LH pic.twitter.com/gzCkrX0NAX

— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) January 10, 2023

Year-on-year CPI inflation in the US is now fundamentally a story of two categories—Food and Core Services (which includes housing)

The year-on-year contribution from energy and core goods is rapidly dwindling and likely to turn negative soon. pic.twitter.com/2EVbKt8SuT

— Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 (@JosephPolitano) January 12, 2023

All 3 months have featured the 3 things that Powell has said he wanted – goods in deflation, housing leveled off, and the rest of core services disinflating. Across the board good news.

Now comes what the hawks will argue: that this level is still too high for 2% inflation. /3 pic.twitter.com/Dyj5GVj76c

— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) January 12, 2023

Here is the crucial "Core Services ex-Shelter CPI YOY" measure https://t.co/kEku1fYIR7 via @M_McDonough pic.twitter.com/huJhfJRqTj

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) January 12, 2023

December CPI, three month annualized rates:

Core goods: -4.8%
Shelter: +9.2%
Services less shelter: 1.2% pic.twitter.com/A8FQeRATjH

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 12, 2023

US headline CPI is back below 7% YoY for the first time since November 2021. Today's -0.1% MoM print pulled the YoY number down to 6.45%. Unless MoM prints above 0.5% for the next couple months, YoY CPI is projected to be below the Fed Funds Rate when March CPI is released. pic.twitter.com/Fro2SYk5Th

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 12, 2023

Can wage inflation come down without unemployment going up? pic.twitter.com/gsmsB0atki

— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) January 13, 2023

Q4 earnings season kicks off tomorrow!

In terms of '23 outlook, bottom-up analyst estimates looking for #SPX500 EPS flat in 1H & then a boom in 2H, for +4.8% overall. Interesting, cyclical sectors forecasted to see the highest earnings growth. 🤔#Recession not consensus here. pic.twitter.com/auOJCTF4ry

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) January 12, 2023

Earnings season is around the corner, and much is riding on it in terms of stock-market momentum. So far, all the incoming waves of estimates are heading lower. pic.twitter.com/vOnB4R3sFC

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) January 12, 2023

Expectations for global EPS growth in 2023 have declined significantly from 16 weeks ago — and the trend doesn't appear to be reversing anytime soon. pic.twitter.com/JrJCGQXC5P

— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) January 17, 2023

‘EPS appears to be far above its long-term trend, and due to revert down toward the mean. This chart from the Bloomberg terminal shows that any sensible trend line suggests that recent earnings are unsustainable.’ https://t.co/HSOYm6ml7y by @johnauthers pic.twitter.com/k7OCBkMvA5

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 10, 2023

"Asset allocators are the most underweight US stocks since Oct 2005" – BofA pic.twitter.com/Ej2lbwLCJp

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) January 17, 2023

Recession Watch Update:
87% of yield curves are now inverted pic.twitter.com/8H9K065jdA

— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) January 16, 2023

APOLLO: “.. households across the income distribution continue to have a higher level of cash available than before the pandemic, and the speed with which households are running down their cash balances in recent quarters has been very slow. .. a powerful tailwind in place ..” pic.twitter.com/YpNcbi9N8G

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 13, 2023

2022 was a record year for earnings call swearinghttps://t.co/gWyx89YOiJ pic.twitter.com/qTtNt8HTBT

— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) January 13, 2023

⚠️@NewYorkFed Empire State Manufacturing Survey:
▶️General business conditions -22pts to -32.9 (worst since pandemic)
▶️New orders & shipments declined substantially
▶️Employment growth stalled
▶️Input price increases slowed considerably
▶️Firms expect little improvement over 6mo pic.twitter.com/E5vjvajTse

— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) January 17, 2023

Disclosure

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