December 28, 2022

Market Performance (YTD)

Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

#Stocks tend to bottom when leading economic indicators (LEI) bottom.

The @Conferenceboard LEI -4.46% YoY in November, at the current trend they have 6 months before hitting past troughs of -10%. Of course trends can change & '08 was worse than -10% YoY.@Factset @MichaelKantro pic.twitter.com/75Ajf0cEsx

— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) December 22, 2022

PCE inflation figures continue to show deceleration. With mo/mo numbers slowing, the overall trajectory is lower. pic.twitter.com/L33h8W0diC

— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 23, 2022

We can break PCE inflation into the three categories that Powell and other Fed officials are watching: goods in deflation, housing peaked, and the rest of services slowing. We see all; notably in services, which has a much different balance of items than CPI. /3 pic.twitter.com/sm7aWodoEn

— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) December 23, 2022

This looks very different in nominal dollars, of course. Goods spending is still WAY above trend in nominal terms. pic.twitter.com/5nlyOT0Mxu

— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) December 23, 2022

Significant HH stat dump this morning suggests continued moderate demand and disinflation for Oct & Nov.

– wages and salaries at 6-7pct ann nominal.
– spending at 6pct ann nominal.
– PCE deflator ex food energy at 2-3pct ann

— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 23, 2022

Reposting with a better image of the chart. pic.twitter.com/UxIQ6BhYOD

— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 22, 2022

2007, 2008, 2009, and 2022.

^ years that have seen U.S. home prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, decline by +2% in a 4-month window. pic.twitter.com/Sri12FDws8

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) December 27, 2022

Since peaking in June 2022, U.S. home prices have fallen 2.4%. That puts us just below April 2022 levels

IF U.S. home prices fall 10% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Oct. 2021 levels

IF U.S. home prices fall 20% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Feb. 2021 levels pic.twitter.com/uAp9LgHLYV

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) December 27, 2022

20 million households priced out of homeownership in a matter of months. Imagine being a home builder or home flipper intending to sell $400k homes in January. https://t.co/rEtnplLt2Z

— John Burns (@johnburnsjbrec) December 23, 2022

2022: worst year for the western US since… pic.twitter.com/TXm40SkmqM

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) December 27, 2022

The #USD is no longer surging (it was up >15%) but it hasn’t weakened enough to start benefitting earnings. pic.twitter.com/AlbaqLkxou

— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) December 22, 2022

Disclosure

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