January 24, 2023
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
US Produce Prices YoY w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/QRsJBkUVVr
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 18, 2023
US Produce Prices MoM w/Contributions: {ECAN<Go>} pic.twitter.com/Vw0d6a4KgZ
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 18, 2023
"December Activity was Soft, even Allowing for Winter Storm Hits" @IanShepherdson https://t.co/qLWAR5pkHl #PantheonMacro pic.twitter.com/BhsZjM2CxY
— Pantheon Macro (@PantheonMacro) January 19, 2023
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are now nearly 100 basis points below the recent high in October, falling to 3.36% today. While this is in response to softer-than-expected PPI and retail sales data, it's also being fueled by a short squeeze among hedge funds. https://t.co/O7TgPR6tBV pic.twitter.com/EWH1ARJIHZ
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) January 19, 2023
Initital UI claims fell last week to 190,000, back down near pre-recession levels.
Continuing claims stepped up to 1,647,000. The holiday impact on the seasonal adj should be fading. Hope to get a clearer view of how continuing claims are trending in coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/JhAVeJhsG5
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) January 19, 2023
The US Leading Economic Index® (#LEI) fell by 1.0% in December 2022 to 110.5 (2016=100) and is now down 4.2% over the past six months—a much steeper rate of decline than its1.9% contraction over the previous six months https://t.co/YoCR1ollQ9 pic.twitter.com/JsEQ3i3mI2
— The Conference Board (@Conferenceboard) January 23, 2023
December marked 10 consecutive m/m declines for LEI from @Conferenceboard … going back to 1960, we've never seen that stretch without economy already being in recession pic.twitter.com/7ZbHPx2pmI
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 24, 2023
This is the @asr_london version of this chart – showing the calendar year S&P earnings (as given by IBES/Refinitiv) and the periods of NBER recession – not EPS recession as in the JPM chart… Just highlights that current earnings expectations still assume NO US recession pic.twitter.com/NUI0SGcxCn
— Ian Harnett (@IanRHarnett) January 22, 2023
If you think recession is discounted in markets – think again! @EthanYWu and @rbrtrmstrng used our US Equity Risk Premium chart in today's @FT. The ERP rises in recession – recently, it has fallen. Either the recession view is wrong, or Equity prices and Bond yields must fall pic.twitter.com/H4dqD5D1D4
— Ian Harnett (@IanRHarnett) January 19, 2023
This chart is a big reason stocks aren't pricing in a downturn IMO – quite the opposite, they seem to be pricing in an acceleration in activity. That may turn out to be the case. But if you think activity has further to fall this year, cyclicals vs defensives are mispriced. pic.twitter.com/X4EjEQ11do
— The Spread Thread (@SpreadThread1) January 23, 2023
US corporate bond spreads (IG: 130 bp, HY: 439 bp) are very close their 2015 – 2019 average (133 bp, 456 bp). Like equities, this market is not discounting a recession.$LQD $HYG $SPY pic.twitter.com/0N1EhVuKr1
— DataTrek Research (@DataTrekMB) January 24, 2023
Disclosure
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