Week of June 28, 2021
Market Performance For The Week
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
The Good News
Revenue and earnings expectations continue to rise
$SPX is projected to report its largest Y/Y revenue growth in Q2 2021 (19.6%) since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008. https://t.co/LVGochDGY0 pic.twitter.com/TzCrVDeXiH
— FactSet (@FactSet) July 4, 2021
Earnings for Q2 are almost upon us. After a blockbuster Q1, which produced a 53% growth rate (30 percentage points from the start of the season), the Q2 season will start with a 63% estimated growth rate. Q3 and Q4 so far look more normal by comparison. pic.twitter.com/Zbk1yXXeXk
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 2, 2021
S&P 500 EPS estimates inched higher again overnight. $SPY pic.twitter.com/Hddxx1JuRn
— The Earnings Scout (@EarningsScout) June 30, 2021
The jobs report released on Friday showed the economy continues to make strong strides
ECONOMY WATCH: U.S. adds 850,000 new jobs in June – well above 706,000 MarketWatch forecast. Unemployment rate rises to 5.9% from 5.8%. Hiring strongest in leisure and hospitality and govt. Good report. Economy clawing back from pandemic and growing strongly.
— MarketWatch Economy (@MKTWeconomics) July 2, 2021
BREAKING: The US economy added 850,000 jobs in June, a strong number that shows workers are starting to return as they feel safe and ready.
Unemployment rate: 5.9%
**Overall, ~70% of jobs lost are back. There are at least 6.8 million jobs to go **
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) July 2, 2021
Unemployment rate’s uptick to 5.9% was higher than 5.6% est. & 5.8% in prior month, but not sinister when compared to earlier levels pic.twitter.com/gRskIEsjnl
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 2, 2021
Getting better, but still not good. Nonfarm payrolls beat in June; however, the total shortfall when compared to the February 2020 peak is 6.764 million. About half the gap is in two areas: leisure & hospitality and state & local governments. pic.twitter.com/nVpO8NIQds
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) July 2, 2021
To put the jobs recovery in perspective..
The Bad News
Supply chains across the globe continue to be pressured
Wow! The price gauge of the ISM manufacturing index just soared to a more than 40-year high.
Bear in mind, however, that this is a measure of the number of companies experiencing pricing pressure, as opposed to absolute prices themselves. Still though.https://t.co/Qoqqo4V4r1 pic.twitter.com/AxEuNiloB4
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 1, 2021
The State Of The Market
The market is humming along
The S&P 500 today will close its 2nd best first-half of the year since 1998.
(via @peterschack) @CNBC pic.twitter.com/WZEORjdE0G
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 30, 2021
With very little hiccups, so far
Unsurprisingly, equity inflows this year have been very, very strong
The gains in the market this year have been led by earnings growth, not multiple expansion
Speaking of growth, emerging markets are poised for strong economic growth going forward
More specifically, China
And we are starting to see some progress internationally..
Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson:
Every market around the world is going to see exactly what the United States has experienced here over the last 90 days.$SBUX pic.twitter.com/aMWQxHADhq
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) July 2, 2021
Charts Of The Week
— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) July 2, 2021
The Russell 1000 Value Index has trailed its growth counterpart by roughly 8 percentage points this month, the most since 2000.@business pic.twitter.com/MYaFEoFq49
— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) July 1, 2021
Story Of The Week
Robinhood is preparing to go public and receives the largest ever FINRA fine: Revealed: How Robinhood harmed millions of its customers – Axios
This is unfreakinbelievable:
Robinhood did $277 million in revenue in 2019 and $958 million in 2020. https://t.co/O67fanC5DK
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) July 1, 2021
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