Weekly ChartBook
Week of June 21, 2021
Market Performance For The Week
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
The Good News
Positive revenue guidance from companies in the S&P 500 near record
@FactSet: “68 $SPX companies have issued positive revenue guidance for Q2 2021, which is the second-highest number since FactSet began tracking guidance in 2006. bit.ly/3A1kcHW”
Moody’s estimating we get back to full employment by 2023, one of the fastest recoveries on record
Liz Ann Sonders: “If thinking in terms of employment, this recovery may not be speediest but it will outpace others per @MoodysAnalytics, which estimates that we get back to full employment by no later than early 2023.
The Bad News
Home prices had their largest annual gain since the 1980s
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation, unsurprisingly, keeps rising
The State Of The Market
The Fed might know what they are doing. Liquidity looks like it may have peaked in March/April.
“April’s performance was truly extraordinary. The 14.6% gain in the National Composite is literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data.”
(via @pboockvar)
S&P/CoreLogic Home Price Index: pic.twitter.com/UDm6adafAS— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 29, 2021
It appears that the great surge in used car prices has likely crested https://t.co/vGW57kZgkG via @atanzi pic.twitter.com/EVPB4yrGVW
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 24, 2021
Indeed, global liquidity conditions mostly peaked in Q1 of this year…
What does this mean for the global business cycle?
Liquidity drain will start to be a drag for global growth momentum in the second half of 2021.
So many interesting things going on in macro right now. https://t.co/IeSa1oudyy pic.twitter.com/APcueBy47z
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) June 24, 2021
Not to add fuel to the fire..
The increased liquidity is helping people quit and demand higher wages
A lot of liquidity remains, though
Sam Ro: “Wells Fargo estimates $2.4 trillion in excess savings has been accumulated by consumers since the beginning of the pandemic. And consumer spending accounts for about 68% of GDP.”
Charts Of The Week
Lumber is crashing more. HT: @2x4caster pic.twitter.com/cWtnqIlIak
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 28, 2021
Maybe markets are just playing a whole new game.
Maybe stuff like this doesn't work anymore since so many are now following it.
But this is one of the few times in 20 years that the Nasdaq has scored a high with so few stocks in uptrends. pic.twitter.com/Q9gUCZSqE1
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) June 24, 2021
S&P 500 closed week at another ATH, printing best weekly performance since Feb, albeit shallow breadth of rally may be a warning signal, BBG’s Ye Xie writes. 48% of S&P 500 members trading >50d moving average, the lowest percentage since 1999, suggesting the rally lacks momentum. pic.twitter.com/if1wbCnoyu
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 25, 2021
Story Of The Week
Disclosure
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.
About Post Author
