Market Performance (YTD)
Normally a 263,000 gain in new jobs and 3.5% unemployment is great news for the economy. These are not normal times. Labor market not cooling fast enough to stop rapid Fed rate hikes aimed at taming high inflation. And thus odds of recession grow. https://t.co/cZBQZl5kSu pic.twitter.com/y299ZwTcWf
— Jeffry Bartash (@jbartash) October 7, 2022
Wage growth may be moderating but has a long way to go. The three-month growth in nominal average hourly earnings adjusted for industry-level composition changes is lower than it was in late 2021. (5/8) pic.twitter.com/P2Xd6jXQnL
— Peterson Institute (@PIIE) October 7, 2022
In short, wholesale price inflation is turning, but the pace of the slowdown remains gradual.
To use Fed Vice Chair's words: "there is still ample room for margin recompression to help reduce inflation" pic.twitter.com/IsQdiDgzsd
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) October 12, 2022
Of the 6 different types of economic data that we get (as categorized by Bloomberg), it's the labor market that's most consistently been surprising to the upside. Housing the worst. pic.twitter.com/9XREpobgB8
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 7, 2022
The net percentage of S&P companies reducing sales & EPS guidance are in their 90th percentiles (Authers/22V) pic.twitter.com/YPemANO6mI
— Marta Escribano (@MartaEscribanoL) October 6, 2022
Earnings estimates for 3q have fallen by 7% since the prior quarter–one of the biggest drops outside of the pandemic crash in early 2020, according to DB pic.twitter.com/ePlE9ZWCUI
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) October 10, 2022
IMF: The Worst is yet to come
"More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies—the US, the EE & China—will continue to stall. In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession" pic.twitter.com/tZTNQQ88bZ
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) October 11, 2022
Our market health checklist shows very little support remains for stocks. Only sentiment (panic is evident) and real rates remain in the green. Still searching for bottom. pic.twitter.com/iDnvIeK1Y3
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) October 11, 2022
These charts show just how weird things are getting in the housing market.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 10, 2022
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