November 23, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
Household Debt Rises to $16.51 Trillion on Higher Mortgage, Credit Card Balances @NYFedResearch https://t.co/IPEYVWtLeR pic.twitter.com/Im1bRNG9hR
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 15, 2022
15% increase in credit card balances in Q3 "towers over the last eighteen years of data" – @NYFedResearch https://t.co/BLq6Vi3YuJ pic.twitter.com/XXxXB0USDU
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 15, 2022
As refi demand has fallen we've started to see some competition on credit quality, though notably on a FICO basis mortgage origination is still lower-risk than the late 2010s. pic.twitter.com/UwdZw7UmLr
— George Pearkes (@pearkes) November 15, 2022
Goldman: Household balance sheet levels remain strong,
but we estimate that households have drawn down about 25% of their excess savings so far and will have spent around 60% by end-2023 pic.twitter.com/nqajrfGON6
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) November 18, 2022
The "excess savings" discussion can be a bit touchy, but what's clear is the *rate* of savings has plummeted this year and future borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive for consumers (via @CapEconUS) pic.twitter.com/GbZE4k3Rhq
— Myles Udland Is On Family Leave (@MylesUdland) November 22, 2022
US retail sales better than expected at 1.3% vs a 1% forecast.
Core retail sales 1.3% vs forecast of 0.5%
Strength in auto sales, but noteworthy weakness in general merchandise. The latter is *very* bad news for many retailers that continue to struggle with inventories. pic.twitter.com/3fNjmCPnLL
— Traderade (@TraderadeTweets) November 16, 2022
Bloated inventories at Walmart and Target, "two of the best managed retailers," point to more goods disinflation to come: Reynolds Strategy. Wamart's inventory was more than 25% above the level of Q3 2020, and Target's are now 50% higher than that time period: Brian Reynolds.
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 16, 2022
COLUMN: What food crisis?
The FAO food-coat index is about to turn negative on an annual % basis for first time since mid-2020. And the price of many foodstuffs, from chickpeas to salmon to palm oil, is already falling.
My latest @opinion note is here: https://t.co/CrtwYHYqu7 pic.twitter.com/jGzi4yaYkX
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) November 16, 2022
Homebuilder sentiment continued its 2022 collapse, with Oct coming in at 33–below the est of 36 & last month's 38. On the bright side, this should make prices fall further. pic.twitter.com/jAn7YZqi1z
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) November 16, 2022
U.S. housing starts drop in October, are off 21% since peaking in April of this year pic.twitter.com/Emnr732YuD
— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) November 18, 2022
The decline in building activity in response to higher rates has been entirely in the single family sector while multifamily permits/starts/pipeline power ahead above pre-pandemic rates…1/3 pic.twitter.com/FJ0dhO7TuS
— Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) November 17, 2022
This won't affect shelter in CPI until later in 2023 given measurement lags, but if it continues to be confirmed in the data through Q4 will become part of the policy discussion just as spiking market rents did in 2021 3/3 pic.twitter.com/HnyKwMQ36u
— Julia Coronado (@jc_econ) November 17, 2022
Jobless Claims (#leadingindicator) continue to show a very strong labor #market in which laid-off workers are quickly being absorbed. A #Fed “pivot” isn’t in the cards. pic.twitter.com/yhc0st38pg
— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) November 17, 2022
Steepest U.S. yield curve inversion since 1982: US 2-year yields are now nearly 63 basis points above rates on 10-year notes. pic.twitter.com/67XehyraTi
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 16, 2022
If you peel back the layers, earnings look even weaker: Ex-energy, the expected growth rate for 2022 is down to 1.2%. That’s well below the inflation rate. /2 pic.twitter.com/SA2eAeMLhK
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 16, 2022
"While some analysts have cut estimates premised on lower profit margins, few have reduced sales forecasts" – MS Wealth Mgmt pic.twitter.com/hK0YTxzMO0
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 21, 2022
Leading indicators down 2.7% y/y.
Since 1960, when y/y reading first reached -2%, the US economy was either already in or within 5 months of a recession.
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 18, 2022
Future supply chain stress nonexistent per November @KansasCityFed Index … outlook for supplier delivery times has crashed to lowest on record pic.twitter.com/zE73ZXfmEJ
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 18, 2022
👀 UK inflation hits 11.1%.
October was projected to be the peak at 10.7% https://t.co/j8mwJuyFxz
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) November 16, 2022
Here's what the guy who marshaled Enron through bankruptcy has to say as he digs into FTX:
"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."— Annie Massa (@antoniabmassa) November 17, 2022
Fed’s balance sheet continues to roll over … measured in % drawdown terms (bottom pane), current drop is largest since early 2020 pic.twitter.com/3K2nCiB01h
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 18, 2022
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