Market Performance (YTD)
Yields on one-month T-bills are about the highest since at least 2001 on debt-ceiling concerns: pic.twitter.com/Vc02k8xnE0
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 16, 2023
Odds of a June hike have gone from 15% ↗️ 39% & hold 85% ↘️ 61% in a week!
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) May 19, 2023
$JPM COO yesterday on the state of the consumer:
"The US economy at the moment is doing fine as the consumer, but we see signs of deterioration, slowdown in the economy, some indicators. And also consumer, gradually, the buffers that they build in their savings through the… pic.twitter.com/UvSHtdwi1u
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) May 23, 2023
The share of auto and credit-card loans that were 90+ days delinquent approached prepandemic levels in early 2023 –a sign more people are struggling to pay their billshttps://t.co/ROvbYStXDh @jpinsk pic.twitter.com/d8mdcIfgKk
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) May 17, 2023
Spread between @Conferenceboard Coincident Economic Index and Leading Economic Index (in year/year % change terms) is close to reaching historical extreme, with former still in positive territory and latter plunging deeper into negative territory pic.twitter.com/lZTElCqiO1
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 23, 2023
The YoY growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in April and is at levels that have signaled a recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001)… pic.twitter.com/F0HXxxGLPP
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) May 18, 2023
April marked 13th consecutive month of monthly contractions for Leading Economic Index from @Conferenceboard … going back in history, only two recessions have reached at least 13: those that started in 1973 and 2007 pic.twitter.com/DPJCvqy7dx
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 19, 2023
Sorry that we have to repeat this message – but the key reason to remain cautious is that the CREDIT CRUNCH FOR CORPORATES IS ONLY JUST STARTING… pic.twitter.com/Az3XnJb72C
— Ian Harnett (@IanRHarnett) May 22, 2023
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) May 17, 2023
The US Treasury’s cash balance fell to $68B.
Google, Amazon and Microsoft have access to more cash than the US government (loosely). Anyway just an idea of scale.
🔈on 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/rmMTa4jxM4
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) May 19, 2023
There Are Only Four Major U.S. Metro Areas Where It’s Cheaper to Buy a Home Than Rent
The typical home costs an estimated 25% more per month to own than rent.
Mortgage rates would have to fall significantly for owning to become cheaper than renting https://t.co/PaatGQyfPz pic.twitter.com/ln7wx6p73Q
— Taylor Marr (@TaylorAMarr) May 19, 2023
The S&P 500's fwd P/E/G (i.e. P/E adj for growth) is 1.92x, approaching mid-2020 levels. After that peak, earnings and growth expectations surged due to stimulus and reopening, bringing this ratio down. Not sure we can expect the same now…stocks look expensive by this metric. pic.twitter.com/6gjaCQK2nA
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) May 22, 2023
"The consensus has been forecasting negative growth since October 2022, and the recession has yet to arrive because it has taken longer time to run down excess savings in the household sector…" @apolloglobal's Torsten Slok https://t.co/v5FQBE0Ref pic.twitter.com/oGLh4DSHGq
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) May 23, 2023
The global rate hiking cycle is slowing pic.twitter.com/r5SZ24yFQd
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 17, 2023
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) May 22, 2023
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