December 14, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
gm ☀️ pic.twitter.com/BPwxuCG7vA
— Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) December 13, 2022
BOOM: IT'S COOL:
Headline CPI rises just 0.1%. Core CPI rises just 0.2%
Economists had been looking for a 0.3% headline gain, and a 0.3% core gain.
YOY headline inflation down to just 7.1%
Futures absolutely EXPLODING higher https://t.co/CKafFzS5ys pic.twitter.com/Maoz6lzl9I
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) December 13, 2022
INFLATION WATCH: The cost of living rose a scant 0.1% in November, CPI shows. Below 0.3% forecast. Yearly increase slows to 7.1% from 7.7%. Core CPI rose 0.2%. The increase in the core rate in the past 12 months drops to 6% from 6.3%.
— MarketWatch Economy (@MKTWeconomics) December 13, 2022
Year-on-year inflation continued to tick down thanks to significant improvements in energy (gasoline especially) and core goods (used vehicles especially).
The majority of inflation comes now comes from core services (which includes housing, a lagging component). pic.twitter.com/JxMMAniJPO
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) December 13, 2022
The second Powell wants is to see divergence between 3-month inflation and 6- and 12-month inflation. For the past year, they've all been lined up the same, a discouraging signal through the monthly noise of this-and-that.
But now we finally start to see a break downward. /3 pic.twitter.com/np6QrLLrUM
— Mike Konczal (@mtkonczal) December 13, 2022
Market is repricing the path of the fed funds rate – pricing in cuts and lowering the expected terminal rate. But Fed speak suggest a 5% or higher estimate is likely tomorrow on dot plot. pic.twitter.com/RvUF6Cjg3f
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 13, 2022
Still seeing disinflation in the pipeline. pic.twitter.com/TYXdvJgaq4
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 9, 2022
Continuing jobless claims surprised to the upside and are now at 1.67M. Big shift upward over the last two months. Signs of softening in labor are here. pic.twitter.com/CCQpPMAyke
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) December 8, 2022
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker by Individual Components: (▲Switchers vs. ▼Stayers) pic.twitter.com/HtSiVZGHjI
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) December 8, 2022
A rebound in productivity growth is the key to many of our current issues as it would help lift supply and reduce inflation while maintaining a solid demand environment pic.twitter.com/zFaA20uyYM
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) December 7, 2022
US recession alarm getting louder! US yield curve most inverted since 1981: US 2s/10s yield spread at -84bps. pic.twitter.com/xGUI8S1hFr
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 8, 2022
Do inverted yield curves matter?
The 3m10y yield curve has been inverted by 50+ bps for 3 weeks now. Every other streak of similar or longer duration was followed by a recession within 8 months. https://t.co/3SKchX5bD5 pic.twitter.com/6nxOTXCLkd
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 14, 2022
'This is the first year this century in which strategists have predicted an outright decline for the stock market in the year ahead.' https://t.co/4Xa1WA3jFi pic.twitter.com/v7SrI6kmoe
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 7, 2022
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