August 17, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
91% of S&P 500 companies have now report Q2 earnings. Takeaways:
-> 5 out of 11 sectors had negative EPS growth
-> Overall earnings growth +6.5%, but outsized driver was energy +297%
-> Earnings estimates for '22 & '23 were trimmedEarnings engine stalling #latecycle @Factset pic.twitter.com/Ky1RCu6k5w
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) August 12, 2022
GM, Twitterverse ☕️ Hope you're all having a better day than the NY Fed Manufacturing index. Fell to -31.3 in Aug vs. +5.0 est and +11.1 in July. Big declines in new orders & shipments. pic.twitter.com/z2ymXFCMSx
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) August 15, 2022
U.S. Manufacturing Surveys/PMIs: (Empire State just surprised significantly to the downside; actual: -31.3, Bloomberg survey: 5.0) {from ECAN} pic.twitter.com/OqSMVts4DI
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) August 15, 2022
Spoiler alert: The retail sales report likely looks much less benign beneath the surface
Volumes bought are dropping pic.twitter.com/oGIjAeciWj
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) August 17, 2022
Both seasonally adj and non-seasonally adj initial claims rose. Much of the rise comes two states, Massachusetts and California. So that's a little suspect.
But also a new report from GS research throws some cold water on the recent rise in claims. https://t.co/Mhj2Hy5nYl pic.twitter.com/gpvLrwc4uH
— AnnElizabeth Konkel (@AE_Konkel) August 11, 2022
The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker was 6.7% in July, the same as in June. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker in July was 8.5%, compared to 7.9% in June. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker was 5.9%, down from the 6.1% reading in June. https://t.co/CEtfSTOrAb pic.twitter.com/dTsWc4vTtM
— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) August 11, 2022
Inflation components…
Year-over-year % change. pic.twitter.com/jqJwNsDAZn
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 11, 2022
Holy Smokes on the inflation front:
The key Producer Price Index (inflation for firms/suppliers) — the avg change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods & services— FELL 0.5 percent in July.
even on a yearly basis services costs are rolling over📉 https://t.co/8RgODyaneW pic.twitter.com/euFo3evqMA
— talmon joseph smith (@talmonsmith) August 11, 2022
More signs of easing #inflation. Larger than expected drop in import prices (ex-petroleum) marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Strong dollar helps. pic.twitter.com/q4TN8fOojz
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) August 12, 2022
High yield credit spreads—which proxy for the chance of default for the riskiest companies—have declined nearly 1.7% from their July peak.
It's too early to declare mission accomplished—but it could partly represent an easing of financial conditions and declining recession risk. pic.twitter.com/vaXEQ9bZpM
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) August 13, 2022
One way to think about this is new leases have gone up 25% since the pandemic. The average of all leases has only risen 10%. As apartments turnover or leases get renegotiated the blue line will move towards the grey/orange ones. And the grey/orange ones still growng fast. pic.twitter.com/laC8w5TINW
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 13, 2022
Homebuyers are backing out … roughly 63,000 home purchase agreements fell through in July, which equals 16.1% of homes that went under contract that month; highest % since March/April 2020
@Redfin pic.twitter.com/hMmAuBKn6b— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 16, 2022
Germany must cut gas use by 20% to avoid winter rationing, regulator says. Klaus Müller, head of federal network agency, warned that longer-term cost of ending Germany’s dependence on Russia would be “very high gas price” that could have big consequences. https://t.co/NonhB1q63l pic.twitter.com/ZpllfmYtdy
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 14, 2022
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