December 7, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
Powell: “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” https://t.co/YlZFha3ktg
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 30, 2022
Shorter Powell: It's all about wages. He basically says not to worry about goods or shelter (bc market rents coming down). So wage rates feeding into other services are the key 1/ https://t.co/NHeEAMM8Zx
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 30, 2022
Contributions to price increases shows service spending still the biggest contributor – albeit slowing. Goods spending continues to come down. pic.twitter.com/uLCCBC5LxB
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) December 1, 2022
Even more remarkable when you look at it against its prepandemic trend. pic.twitter.com/kznlRNU4r5
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) December 1, 2022
“If we use the average saving rate in 2019 to calculate excess savings, we arrive at an estimate of around $1.2tn, which could support spending for nearly a year. If we use the 2015-18 average saving rate, [it] could support spending for up to two years.”
– B of A pic.twitter.com/KfNv5nCIZl
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 2, 2022
BREAKING: ITS ANOTHER BEAT
263K new jobs, 3.7% unemployment rate, hourly wages jump 0.6%.
Economists had expected 200K new jobs, and for the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%.https://t.co/3qRc6BftBc
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) December 2, 2022
The unemployment rate was flat in November, holding at 3.7 percent, but labor force participation ticked down 0.1pp for the 2nd straight month.
Getting deja vu as last month's report was similar w/ stronger payrolls, weaker household#jobsreport 7/ pic.twitter.com/dg9phHuLmB
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) December 2, 2022
Question to Powell: Can you get workforce participation rates back to where they were before the pandemic?
"Do we expect to see big chunks" of labor supply coming back? There hasn't been much this year.
"It's been very disappointing and a little surprising."
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 30, 2022
"So far, we have seen only tentative signs of moderation of labor demand… job growth remains far in excess of the pace needed to accommodate population growth over time—about 100,000 per month by many estimates." https://t.co/okxnuChVJI pic.twitter.com/6CZxkh1sjB
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 30, 2022
From the @wsj and illustrating the strength of services and the divergence vis-a-vis manufacturing. Good news for growth and jobs; consistent with changing inflation drivers and a sticky inflation rate on the way down; and a further illustration of a Fed having fallen well behind pic.twitter.com/H93biM7h50
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 6, 2022
From @OxfordEconomics: there are more professional economists calling for a #recession over the next 12 than any other time in history
Can't say the markets believe them with…
> High yield spreads 4.38%
> VIX 19
> #SPX500 only -13% YTD, cyclical sectors rallying in Q4— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) December 5, 2022
Despite #Fed talk of a terminal rate at 5% or higher, history suggests they will fold sooner. When the 3mo-10yr spread inverts, which it now has, the Fed has paused or pivoted. Inversions are highly predictive of recessions. Inflation argues higher but Fed is packed with Doves. pic.twitter.com/uehvo7yEzT
— Royce Medlin (@RoyceMedlin) December 5, 2022
Mortgage rates recorded their biggest 3-week drop in *14 years*, since the financial crisis in late 2008
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 6.49%, from 7.08% on Nov 10 @WSJmarkets @BenEisen https://t.co/eQb2MBeQZn pic.twitter.com/KX5lm5ItZP
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) December 1, 2022
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