Market Commentary
Q1 2018
Early or Late Cycle? There has been a great deal of debate recently over where we are in the business cycle given the recent acceleration of economic growth. Does this expansion’s anemic growth (slowest on record) mean we have avoided... Read More →
Where do home prices go from here? You don’t want to know.
Home prices in the US have blown through previous cycle highs set in 2006. Their rapid ascent to that peak (now almost 10 years ago) saw a 122% rise in the median home price to $185,000, according to the Case-Shiller... Read More →
Market Rally Confounding You? Mystery Solved
The stock market continues to reach new highs and seems impervious to bad news or political rancor. Is the market trading on sheer euphoria? The answer is: Strong fundamentals are driving stock prices higher, both here and around the globe.... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q4 2017
2017 was an outstanding year for equities. Global growth was in sync for the first time since the 2008 recession with the world’s 45 largest economies all in expansion mode. This previously occurred from 2004 to 2007, a period also... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q3 2017
Nuclear threats from North Korea, natural disasters Harvey and Irma, and tragedies in Charlottesville and Las Vegas all served as proof that stocks want to go up, despite the odds. Indeed, the 3rd quarter was chock full of potential pitfalls... Read More →
Will the Markets Stay Calm? Short VIX Investors Hope So.
There are many fundamental reasons stocks have behaved well lately. Earnings are strong and appear to be getting stronger. Economic growth is accelerating and in-sync globally for the first time since the post-financial crisis bounce. And of course, global monetary... Read More →
Earnings Green Light, Valuations Red Light
Corporate earnings signaled a green light for stocks again this quarter, marking the second double-digit growth quarter in a row which last occurred six years ago. Revenue growth has also surprised on the upside which portends good growth to come.... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q2 2017
After a strong first quarter of 2017, the second quarter was even better, particularly for non-US equities that played catch-up to the steady upward move in US stocks. While leadership within stocks has oscillated between cyclical and defensive sectors, volatility... Read More →
Clock is Ticking on Tax Reform
The most recent GDP print of 0.7% growth underscores the real need for economic reforms. Subpar growth last quarter was primarily a function of slower consumer spending even though business investment picked up materially since the election. Economic growth of... Read More →
Market Commentary
Q1 2017
2017 is off to a strong start with stocks, bonds and alternatives all up during the 1st quarter. The stock market rally that began last November with the presidential election has continued with little resistance. Increased optimism is being tested,... Read More →