July 9, 2024
No fireworks for the June #jobsreport but none needed as cooling in the job market continues:
-Jobs growth slows to 206,000
-Avg hrly earnings growth cools to 3.9% YoY
-Unemp rises to 4.1%1/
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 5, 2024
Jobs growth was solid overall. Much of jobs growth in June was concentrated in education and health care services and government.
Construction employment also jumped despite recent softening in the housing sector.
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 5, 2024
-Health care, social assistance, govt (edu & non-edu) continue to power jobs growth.
-Construction has been surprisingly consistent
-Transpo. & warehousing, information, prof. & biz. services may be turning around
-Manufacturing has been soft for over a yr— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 5, 2024
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, surpassing the 4% threshold for the first time since November 2021.
The unemployment rate isn't rising fast enough to raise red flags, but the slow rise is still a concern.
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 5, 2024
Unemployment rate continues to climb above its rolling 36-month average pic.twitter.com/8OlD3PUYBz
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 5, 2024
Important context for this is that the percentage of workers that work for the government is still lower than any period from 1960-2020. https://t.co/Hf24ImA8p7 pic.twitter.com/4OFDcahFLy
— Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ (@besttrousers) July 5, 2024
"June marked a historic surge in US corporate bankruptcy filings, with the highest number recorded in a single month since at least the start of 2020 and surpassing half-year figures seen in over a decade."@SPGlobalPMI, h/t @MikeZaccardi pic.twitter.com/zGipPxVf4i
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 9, 2024
The six-month performance spread between the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equalweight index has only been higher than it is now during a small number of days in March 2000. pic.twitter.com/EoZgtMWMuJ
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 9, 2024
New cycle high for S&P 500 Tech sector's forward P/E pic.twitter.com/Z4lHvXovmy
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 9, 2024
On Friday, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 Index over a rolling 21-day period dropped to the lowest in history. pic.twitter.com/sUSzU3xNLm
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) July 8, 2024
I knew market cap weighted was crushing equal weighted. I knew tech was crushing ex-tech. I did not know that equal weighted tech was underperforming the equal weighted market, 2.1% vs 2.5%. Crazy times. pic.twitter.com/sUI5t8Uy8j
— modest proposal (@modestproposal1) July 8, 2024
Megacap-8 Hits a Record-High P/S Ratio @yardeni https://t.co/WWmIDQRuo5 @seekingalpha pic.twitter.com/uehZrsO3zp
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 8, 2024
ICYMI: ever
United States produces more crude oil than any country, everhttps://t.co/rZMb1DPf3o pic.twitter.com/0QxXOXp3Mw
— Joshua D. Rhodes (@joshdr83) July 9, 2024
This is one of the longest streaks ever without a 2% drop for the S&P 500.
Of course, looking back further in history this streak could last a lot longer than most think. pic.twitter.com/EYy0ziQ0wS
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 8, 2024
A bad take on multifamily I hear a lot:
"Supply > Demand is just a Sun Belt thing."
Demand is above norms nearly everywhere, but supply is WAY above norms nearly everywhere.
Fewer U.S. MSAs have demand > supply than at any point in 20+ years– including the GFC. pic.twitter.com/oWrh37MQMK
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) July 8, 2024
It's only the midpoint of 2024, and yet apartment developers have built more units so far this year than they did in any year between 2001-2013, with 284k units completed.
By the end of 2024, apartment completions could approach 600k units for the first time since 1974. pic.twitter.com/gzjCbvtp0Y
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) July 9, 2024
Again, though, this isn't to say demand is weak. It's not. But we're in the midst of the biggest apartment supply wave in ~50 years, and it'll take some time to work through.
In the meantime, renters benefit from increased options + flat/lower rents.https://t.co/QYCepR6oVV
— Jay Parsons (@jayparsons) July 8, 2024
“The percent of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in forward earnings rose to a bull-market high of 83.0% during the July 5 week (chart). That argues for a broadening of the stock market's breadth.” @yardeni https://t.co/YjZaH9wD0D pic.twitter.com/KZfs6mOAmb
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) July 8, 2024
Sector composition of the S&P 500 has shifted significantly over time. pic.twitter.com/q24XroNYeH
— Blake B. Millard, CFA (@BlakeMillardCFA) July 9, 2024
Number of mutual funds and ETFs versus number of U.S. stocks @WSJ https://t.co/DdOzaKGKV2 pic.twitter.com/lCVj0ZnqNi
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) July 8, 2024
Amazing stat from @sonusvarghese here.
High-tech construction was only 11% of overall manufacturing construction in late '20.
Today it is 58%! pic.twitter.com/YFdUTQfrCo
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 8, 2024
Disclosure
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.