Market Performance (YTD)
*Raises rates by three-quarters of a point to 3-3.25%
*Projects 4.4% rates at the end of 2022, suggesting a 75 and a 50
*Rates climb to 4.6% next year (up from 3.8%)
*Sees unemployment rising to 4.4% next year
This is a central bank in full inflation-fighting mode.
— Jeanna Smialek (@jeannasmialek) September 21, 2022
Shorter Chair Powell
-Want sufficiently restrictive rates
-Maintain that stance for some time
-A ways to go before we get there
-Want to avoid prematurely easing
-Committed to getting 2% inflation
-We will keep at it until job is done
-See Jackson Hole speech for more
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) September 21, 2022
Leading economic indicators update through August, now -1.02% YoY. @Conferenceboard: "Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.” @FactSet chart pic.twitter.com/UDEX5YDkn8
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) September 23, 2022
Heading into the Fed meeting, 64% of Treasury yield curves are inverted, a record for this cycle. High inversion breadth has been consistent with a weakening economy and an eventual recession. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/M4uAOG4FUq
— Rob Anderson (@robanderson_stl) September 21, 2022
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve tightening cycles pic.twitter.com/HHGX01nRhm
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) September 22, 2022
The rolling 5-day moves in 5-year UK gilts has been the largest in data going back to 1979, showing the magnitude of the recent moves, h/t Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank. pic.twitter.com/GvxLn1bBZf
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 27, 2022
“The market has already repriced UK terminal rates to above 5%, the highest of any other developed market country… If the Bank of England doesn’t follow through with this pricing there will likely be even more currency weakness to go”
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) September 23, 2022
— John Authers (@johnauthers) September 22, 2022
Biggest five stocks in the S&P 500 are still too pricey given rising rates. The rest of the index trades at just 15x. pic.twitter.com/ItrSEWpuWh
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) September 22, 2022
Mom and pop have given up.
This week joins just 4 others in 35 years with more than 60% of respondents being despondent in the AAII survey.
One year returns after the others: +22.4%, +31.5%, +7.4%, +56.9%.
But, of course, this time is different. pic.twitter.com/N42aE3szim
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) September 22, 2022
One of the ugliest charts in the markets right now…
Notably, BND has taken-in nearly $10bil this year.
Other broad bond ETFs such as AGG, SCHZ, SPAG, BKAG, etc have approx $600mil inflows combined. pic.twitter.com/DqFoC4hNb3
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 23, 2022
In July, more housing permits were issued in the Dallas metro area (population 7.6 million) than in the entire state of California combined (population 39 million). pic.twitter.com/I54XC4n69v
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) September 21, 2022
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