September 21, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
CPI: Shelter came in hotter. As did food at home. The offset from a decline in gasoline by 10.6% wasn't enough. pic.twitter.com/kP3dzh2Dvs
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@ayeshatariq) September 13, 2022
Here's a chart of year-on-year CPI inflation, broken down by major component:
Food, energy, and core goods are still major contributors—but core services (which is mostly rents) is now far and away the largest contributor, making up approximately 1/2 of total inflation. pic.twitter.com/OfqN4lcjPX
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) September 13, 2022
Higher housing prices have been to be a major driver of excessive inflation
A slowing US housing market has already begun to impact prices which should provide a runway for lower levels of inflation
Source: Arcano Partners, @thedailyshot 3/5 pic.twitter.com/MzkP1LAE9i
— Patrick Huang (@SFA_InvResearch) September 16, 2022
Yet another “yikes” housing datapoint: September @NAHBhome Home Builders Market Index fell to 46 vs. 47 est. & 49 in prior month; sentiment has fallen every month this year, which is longest stretch of declines back to 1985 pic.twitter.com/HobOCrQKa5
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 19, 2022
Between May 2022 and August 2022, home values are down…
10.59% in San Jose.
7.8% in San Francisco.
7.36% in Austin.
7.09% in Salt Lake City. pic.twitter.com/Vjfx7Ii9re— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) September 20, 2022
Here's an update of our table that shows the forward path for YoY CPI based on constant MoM prints between -0.1% and +0.4%. pic.twitter.com/B6EJwMzNfv
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 19, 2022
U.S. 2-year yields have risen by more than 3 percentage points this year, the most since 1994, and potentially poised to eclipse that year's increase if things keep up this way. pic.twitter.com/COHuNcPZCs
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 20, 2022
US 10y yield jumps >3.50% for 1st time since 2011 ahead of another jumbo rate hike expected this week by the Fed to bring down #inflation. pic.twitter.com/wnQ3vNWEwc
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 19, 2022
U.S. investment-grade bond yields are the highest since 2009, at an average 5.14%. pic.twitter.com/XIuQELONAY
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 19, 2022
To put this in perspective, it would be the third lowest euro area GDP growth since WW2, behind 2009 and 2020. via DB's Jim Reid pic.twitter.com/wIJywpXXa9
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 21, 2022
Disclosure
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.