March 29, 2022
Market Performance (YTD)
Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
Here’s what pessimists might point to
covid is spreading everywhere in china.. get ready for a new wave of rising prices pic.twitter.com/HyLJTpf5Zi
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) March 29, 2022
4th largest spike in #financial #stress in the last 20-years according to BofA.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA pic.twitter.com/BJkZgNtR73— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 29, 2022
Less a series of hikes than a sheer cliff ascent.
h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/deovvFjIlr
— Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) March 28, 2022
A primary input in our market analysis is global purchasing manager indices #PMI.
As @MichaelKantro highlights, PMIs provide a more real time gauge of earnings growth which in turn is a primary variable to explain equity returns.
His call is that they ↘️ over '22. We agree. pic.twitter.com/d8ZkirHNgu
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) March 24, 2022
#Stagflation in a picture.
– high #inflation
– low #economic growth@RealInvAdvice @michaellebowitz @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/goOrcaivJI— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 29, 2022
A closely watched measure of the yield curve that serves as one of the bond market's most reliable recession indicators inverted on Tue. 2s/10s yield spread intermittently dipped below ZERO and is down from more than 160 basis points a year ago for 1st time since 2019. pic.twitter.com/1Y13MBlbLv
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 29, 2022
The U.S. 5-30 treasury curve is within a single basis point of inversion. Put simply, it's basically there. pic.twitter.com/ZbpVCAqdF1
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) March 28, 2022
The Treasury curve is flattening rapidly at the longer end. pic.twitter.com/VTJ2RykEN8
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) March 25, 2022
“When yield curve inversions happen during the hiking cycle, recessions start within 1-3 years.” – DB pic.twitter.com/Md8o4rTOe5
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 28, 2022
Bond Volatility Index now above the COVID spike! 👀👀 pic.twitter.com/eGALwvHKPw
— Richard Dias (@RichardDias_CFA) March 27, 2022
"3rd great bear bond market underway; prior great bears were 1899 to 1920 and 1946 to 1981; deflation to inflation, globalization to isolationism, monetary to fiscal excess, capitalism to populism, inequality to inclusion, US dollar debasement…long-term yields >4% by '24"
BofA pic.twitter.com/puVfpF6K6P
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) March 25, 2022
'The spike in mortgage rates could have broader implications for the economy.' https://t.co/6Pa0z8F7VZ via @SoberLook @topdowncharts pic.twitter.com/KRWNL7vXF4
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 28, 2022
This is a material move in USD mortgage rates pic.twitter.com/Bnpz2LAIgn
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) March 25, 2022
“Housing demand is rolling over,” says @PantheonMacro. “Q1 is on track for a near-40% annualized plunge. The writing is on the wall, in big, sharp, clear letters.” pic.twitter.com/TnRQJRJ9K0
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 25, 2022
'A sharp divergence between the U. Michigan's and the Conference Board's sentiment indicators tends to lead to economic downturns.' https://t.co/6Pa0z8F7VZ via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/1af9yTgNHO
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 28, 2022
“…32% of all consumers expected their overall financial position to worsen in the year ahead, the highest recorded level since the surveys started in the mid-1940s…” https://t.co/VAr3O7nM3F pic.twitter.com/DKtuiLEvHR
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 25, 2022
In the last 70 years, the only time US Consumer Sentiment was this low without the US being in a recession was a brief period during the 2011 bear market (Aug-Sep '11).
Charting via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/EpnAzXkRSG
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 25, 2022
Watch for saving rate Thursday which has dropped to pre-C19 levels
Unit sales of apparel, footwear, toys & sports equipment dropped 9/10 weeks btw end of Dec & early March
The more consumers push back on higher prices, bigger ripple effect throughout economy@lisaabramowicz1 pic.twitter.com/ui3uB12mcK
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 28, 2022
'Globalization peaks followed by sanctions in '20s and today.' https://t.co/q4mcMHT1JF via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/KQs3uLuDV2
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) March 25, 2022
Who is the largest exporter of fertilizer in the world?
Russia @ 13% of total exports. pic.twitter.com/tgS2gsybBb
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 28, 2022
The coming global food crisis is going to be really bad. pic.twitter.com/EgCVBQWhOI
— Bruce Mehlman (@bpmehlman) March 27, 2022
Ammonia is mooning
Ammonia NH3 -> Haber-Bosch process -> N gained from air; H3 from methane (CH4).
Yes, natural gas is a hydrocarbon! Why do we need Ammonia? To grow food to feed 7.9bn people!
No, wind & solar cannot produce Ammonia. Doubts? Back to chemistry class pls. pic.twitter.com/r3pDFftOvj
— Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 (@BurggrabenH) March 26, 2022
Q1 has seen the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since Q4 2019 via @FactSet https://t.co/Po2DWrMRkZ pic.twitter.com/zKlhfKXa8Y
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 25, 2022
Stagflation periods tend to pressure both stocks and bonds.
Source: @NumeraAnalytics pic.twitter.com/hzqxs3Flxk
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) March 25, 2022
Only 5 components left in green on our 15-component equity-market health checklist. pic.twitter.com/bQAkMxpbGX
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) March 29, 2022
Here’s what optimists might point to
This weekly @GoldmanSachs index is a reminder that, despite all the talk and analysts' forecasts, actual US financial conditions have remained loose in absolute terms until now.#economy #markets #liquidity #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/4C6X6O5N8g
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 28, 2022
“… Labor market data also have remained strong lately in spite of the war.” pic.twitter.com/87sxFK8qnz
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 27, 2022
“Early March data holding up pretty well” – JPM pic.twitter.com/qHHSV7Cben
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 27, 2022
US recession probability is rising. Not much, though
via JP Morgan pic.twitter.com/eG2kDulu2k
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 27, 2022
Barclays: pic.twitter.com/FzeuacrDfb
— Guy LeBas (@lebas_janney) March 30, 2022
Tough to keep stocks down when earnings estimates are on the rise. Six of the 11 S&P500 sectors recorded upward revisions to 1Q earnings growth expectations, and seven notched positive adjustments to revenue forecasts since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/TornQUOFfX
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) March 25, 2022
Consensus US EPS forecast. This year still strong at +8.3% pic.twitter.com/qFnw1vgBlG
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 25, 2022
There was a typo in a tweet posted on Mar. 27 – here is the corrected version: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.5 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (16.8). #earnings, #earningsinsight https://t.co/jTEKh3mhNV pic.twitter.com/mjIeNtEilh
— FactSet (@FactSet) March 28, 2022
Investment grade corporate bonds are down ~9% in Q1.
Over the last 10 yrs. the avg. #yield on the index has been ~3%, today it is ⬆️ to 3.77%.
U.S. high yield has a 10 yr. avg. #yield of 6.53%, today 6.35%.
Higher quality U.S. corporate bonds have gone on sale. @FactSet pic.twitter.com/BSJoE3iiHs
— Matthew Miskin, CFA (@matthew_miskin) March 28, 2022
Meanwhile in Europe..
This is the biggest gas storage in Europe: Empty.
H/T @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/xjzJwCjC72— Gianluca (@Theimmigrant84) March 24, 2022
This is an absolutely damning chart – https://t.co/ueeifZJWoG via @FT pic.twitter.com/bWhTSIdNag
— Giles Wilkes (@Gilesyb) March 26, 2022
"Sentiment in the German economy has collapsed,” IFO
— Guy Johnson (@GuyJohnsonTV) March 25, 2022
🇩🇪 Still. Not. Good. pic.twitter.com/sC9xziktbQ
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) March 25, 2022
Charts of the Week
Flippers are 14% of ALL housing transactions in #Austin, and have shot up 70% YOY (TTM). Definitely one of those markets where risk antennas are going up as rates spike. pic.twitter.com/rFEZ3BGQnw
— Rick Palacios Jr. (@RickPalaciosJr) March 24, 2022
This is THE biggest reason to fear that the USD will lose its reserve currency status pic.twitter.com/m0mDrPTpuB
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) March 23, 2022
Disclosure
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