Market Performance For The Prior Week
The Good News
Earnings: still good
It has been a nearly perfect earnings season!
88% of the 472 co’s reporting beat 2Q21 EPS ests on +92.28% growth
87% topped sales ests on +26.47% growth.
52% had their 3Q21 EPS ests raised after reporting w/ an avg est change of +2.48%
How do you top this?
— The Earnings Scout (@EarningsScout) August 18, 2021
My near useless opinion (my mom values it) on why the market keeps grinding higher:
Earnings revisions going vertical pic.twitter.com/tdzqcMvzgE
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021
I'd call this the stock market chart of the year — current year earnings estimates keep rising (as do forward earnings as we get towards the end of the year), which has acted as a magnet pulling stock prices higher. pic.twitter.com/ohYtG1KDSq
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 24, 2021
This is pretty remarkable. pic.twitter.com/u7RBbzE4IW
— Chris Pavese (@ChrisPavese) August 19, 2021
Peak new Covid cases?
The 4 US states with the highest covid-19 hospitalization rates (Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, & Mississippi) are all showing signs of a potential peak in new cases… pic.twitter.com/xdanOWAcTQ
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 23, 2021
The Mixed News
Leading economic indicators remain high but slowing
The July LEI decelerated to 10.58% Y/Y, from 11.87% in June.
The economic recovery is showing strength, but the year-over-year rate of growth likely peaked in April.
Not necessarily bearish for stocks, but calls for a rotation to #quality
— Emily Roland (@emilyrroland) August 19, 2021
Analysts expectations are diverging. Some very bullish and some not so much.
Among Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, the highest year-end estimate for the S&P 500 is 4,825 and the lowest is 3,800, a spread of almost 27%. https://t.co/oeyF2uqy5s
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 25, 2021
The Bad News
Delta variant is causing more short term problems than analysts anticipated
GOLDMAN SACHS cutting its growth forecast due to the Delta variant pic.twitter.com/EiqEuUeTlR
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) August 18, 2021
And the economic surprise index continues to trend lower
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 24, 2021
The State Of The Market
Markets continue to go up
Today could be the 9th new high for the S&P 500 during August.
That would be the most for any year since 1929.
No, I don't think now is 1929, but that is really interesting. pic.twitter.com/2Z68Iw2uwP
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 24, 2021
— Bloomberg (@business) August 23, 2021
Sidenote: some guy named Justin Sun just spent 500k on a virtual rock. It does have laser eyes, though.
Just spent half million dollars on a rock 😂 pic.twitter.com/4zDmDgzERz
— Justin Sun 🅣🌞 (@justinsuntron) August 22, 2021
Longer sidenote: here’s a quick update on NFTs & virtual rocks. I have no idea – just no idea.
Source: Michael Batnick
Ether Rocks -Pet Rocks on the Blockchain
100 made, 21 available for sale. The highest ask is 303,030 ETH ($960 million).
Of the other 20, the avg asking price is 1,200 ETH, or $3.8 million.
The cheapest is 265 ETHm or $840k. pic.twitter.com/sjKUn9iwat
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) August 22, 2021
EtherRock 87 purchased for Ξ187 Ether
9 mins ago (Aug-22-2021 06:39:03 AM +UTC)
— EtherRock Price (@etherrockprice) August 22, 2021
Feb 14 — $14,470
March 2 — $33,955
May 1 — $60,640
July 31 — $83,997
August 5 — $108,000
August 23 — $203,340 pic.twitter.com/bgNXCc7DSG
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 23, 2021
Someone bought this Cryptopunk today for $237,498.
Sold it six hours later for $281,743. pic.twitter.com/Wgm2EZ46pq
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 24, 2021
Back to the real world: But it’s not all rosy out there
The S&P 500 1500 is up 5.9% over the last 3 months, but the 'average' stock in the index is down 0.65%. https://t.co/rxAqQ3tDSk
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 19, 2021
Drawdawns get progressively worse the smaller the asset size. From -0.71% for Large Caps to -11.58% for Micro Caps. pic.twitter.com/YRUYErL5co
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 18, 2021
And SPACs.. Yikes..
The 25 largest holdings in the SPAC ETF are down an average of 47% from their 52-week high.$SPAK
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 22, 2021
And Asian equities just keep going down
Asian stocks are currently underperforming the S&P 500 by the most this century (well since 1998, but just wanna be dramatic). pic.twitter.com/I8HoBTf7wa
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) August 25, 2021
The China Internet ETF is down over 57% from its high in February, its largest drawdown to date (inception: July 2013).$KWEB
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 20, 2021
To zoom out a little bit..
Yet we sit here, day in and day out, fretting about the market because it's what we do. pic.twitter.com/FgmpRqe9YN
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021
Charts/Tweets Of The Week
— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 24, 2021
And given that crypto-trading revenue was 41% of $HOOD's overall revenue…
…that means Dogecoin made up about one-fourth of all its revenue. https://t.co/tCjtGxtx72
— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) August 18, 2021
Inflation? What inflation? pic.twitter.com/reI6k7GlYd
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) August 21, 2021
“Per Social Standards, the number of hard seltzer posts in July declined -17.5% in comparison to last year and are -4.9% below the average number of posts last summer…" pic.twitter.com/RIO9ZJ6HnD
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) August 23, 2021
— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 22, 2021
Bill Miller on portfolio concentration. "How much is too much? A question of risk versus reward."
"The Chicago Bulls have five sources of points, but Michael Jordan's play usually determines their results.
Should they trade him for a rookie so they won't be so dependent on him?" pic.twitter.com/zgUoEFIFHv
— Frederik (@NeckarValue) August 21, 2021
Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.