August 25, 2021
Market Performance For The Prior Week
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
The Good News
Earnings: still good
It has been a nearly perfect earnings season!
88% of the 472 co’s reporting beat 2Q21 EPS ests on +92.28% growth
87% topped sales ests on +26.47% growth.
52% had their 3Q21 EPS ests raised after reporting w/ an avg est change of +2.48%
How do you top this?
— The Earnings Scout (@EarningsScout) August 18, 2021
My near useless opinion (my mom values it) on why the market keeps grinding higher:
Earnings revisions going vertical pic.twitter.com/tdzqcMvzgE
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021
I'd call this the stock market chart of the year — current year earnings estimates keep rising (as do forward earnings as we get towards the end of the year), which has acted as a magnet pulling stock prices higher. pic.twitter.com/ohYtG1KDSq
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 24, 2021
This is pretty remarkable. pic.twitter.com/u7RBbzE4IW
— Chris Pavese (@ChrisPavese) August 19, 2021
Peak new Covid cases?
The 4 US states with the highest covid-19 hospitalization rates (Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, & Mississippi) are all showing signs of a potential peak in new cases… pic.twitter.com/xdanOWAcTQ
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 23, 2021
The Mixed News
Leading economic indicators remain high but slowing
The July LEI decelerated to 10.58% Y/Y, from 11.87% in June.
The economic recovery is showing strength, but the year-over-year rate of growth likely peaked in April.
Not necessarily bearish for stocks, but calls for a rotation to #quality
LEI and #SPX chart from @factset. pic.twitter.com/PdKVYC7iu0
— Emily Roland (@emilyrroland) August 19, 2021
Analysts expectations are diverging. Some very bullish and some not so much.
Among Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, the highest year-end estimate for the S&P 500 is 4,825 and the lowest is 3,800, a spread of almost 27%. https://t.co/oeyF2uqy5s
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 25, 2021
The Bad News
Delta variant is causing more short term problems than analysts anticipated
GOLDMAN SACHS cutting its growth forecast due to the Delta variant pic.twitter.com/EiqEuUeTlR
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) August 18, 2021
And the economic surprise index continues to trend lower
Economic Surprise Index from @Citi deeper in negative territory, with seasonal tendencies to consider@SoberLook @Bloomberg @Nomura pic.twitter.com/NyXozIrM9b
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 24, 2021
The State Of The Market
Markets continue to go up
Today could be the 9th new high for the S&P 500 during August.
That would be the most for any year since 1929.
No, I don't think now is 1929, but that is really interesting. pic.twitter.com/2Z68Iw2uwP
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 24, 2021
And Crypto is staging a relatively quiet comeback
Bitcoin tops $50,000 for the first time since May https://t.co/lMdebWEz1K pic.twitter.com/Dd1ionCTLD
— Bloomberg (@business) August 23, 2021
Sidenote: some guy named Justin Sun just spent 500k on a virtual rock. It does have laser eyes, though.
Just spent half million dollars on a rock 😂 pic.twitter.com/4zDmDgzERz
— Justin Sun 🅣🌞 (@justinsuntron) August 22, 2021
Longer sidenote: here’s a quick update on NFTs & virtual rocks. I have no idea – just no idea.
Source: Michael Batnick
Ether Rocks -Pet Rocks on the Blockchain
100 made, 21 available for sale. The highest ask is 303,030 ETH ($960 million).
Of the other 20, the avg asking price is 1,200 ETH, or $3.8 million.
The cheapest is 265 ETHm or $840k. pic.twitter.com/sjKUn9iwat
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) August 22, 2021
EtherRock 87 purchased for Ξ187 Ether
9 mins ago (Aug-22-2021 06:39:03 AM +UTC)
Txn: https://t.co/0bICy16wX1#EtherRock #EtherRocks pic.twitter.com/muW95pOfz5
— EtherRock Price (@etherrockprice) August 22, 2021
Feb 14 — $14,470
March 2 — $33,955
May 1 — $60,640
July 31 — $83,997
August 5 — $108,000
August 23 — $203,340 pic.twitter.com/bgNXCc7DSG
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 23, 2021
Someone bought this Cryptopunk today for $237,498.
Sold it six hours later for $281,743. pic.twitter.com/Wgm2EZ46pq
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 24, 2021
Back to the real world: But it’s not all rosy out there
The S&P 500 1500 is up 5.9% over the last 3 months, but the 'average' stock in the index is down 0.65%. https://t.co/rxAqQ3tDSk
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 19, 2021
Drawdawns get progressively worse the smaller the asset size. From -0.71% for Large Caps to -11.58% for Micro Caps. pic.twitter.com/YRUYErL5co
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 18, 2021
And SPACs.. Yikes..
The 25 largest holdings in the SPAC ETF are down an average of 47% from their 52-week high.$SPAK
Data via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/XAamGUKJlm
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 22, 2021
And Asian equities just keep going down
Asian stocks are currently underperforming the S&P 500 by the most this century (well since 1998, but just wanna be dramatic). pic.twitter.com/I8HoBTf7wa
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) August 25, 2021
The China Internet ETF is down over 57% from its high in February, its largest drawdown to date (inception: July 2013).$KWEB
Data via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/nJUFEryUSW
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 20, 2021
To zoom out a little bit..
This stat from @awealthofcs is WILDhttps://t.co/4y5UpewBV1
Yet we sit here, day in and day out, fretting about the market because it's what we do. pic.twitter.com/FgmpRqe9YN
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021
Charts/Tweets Of The Week
How Much Revenue Big Tech Makes Per Minute 💰/⏰https://t.co/RXApDjumLR pic.twitter.com/FDhFofIDf6
— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 24, 2021
And given that crypto-trading revenue was 41% of $HOOD's overall revenue…
…that means Dogecoin made up about one-fourth of all its revenue. https://t.co/tCjtGxtx72
— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) August 18, 2021
Inflation? What inflation? pic.twitter.com/reI6k7GlYd
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) August 21, 2021
“Per Social Standards, the number of hard seltzer posts in July declined -17.5% in comparison to last year and are -4.9% below the average number of posts last summer…" pic.twitter.com/RIO9ZJ6HnD
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) August 23, 2021
Mapped: The Top 10 Billionaire Cities 💰https://t.co/e0jKpdouHT pic.twitter.com/2brw7vBjkY
— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 22, 2021
Bill Miller on portfolio concentration. "How much is too much? A question of risk versus reward."
"The Chicago Bulls have five sources of points, but Michael Jordan's play usually determines their results.
Should they trade him for a rookie so they won't be so dependent on him?" pic.twitter.com/zgUoEFIFHv
— Frederik (@NeckarValue) August 21, 2021
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