August 25, 2021

Market Performance For The Prior Week

Source: YCharts
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance

The Good News

Earnings: still good

It has been a nearly perfect earnings season!

88% of the 472 co’s reporting beat 2Q21 EPS ests on +92.28% growth

87% topped sales ests on +26.47% growth.

52% had their 3Q21 EPS ests raised after reporting w/ an avg est change of +2.48%

How do you top this?

— The Earnings Scout (@EarningsScout) August 18, 2021

My near useless opinion (my mom values it) on why the market keeps grinding higher:

Earnings revisions going vertical pic.twitter.com/tdzqcMvzgE

— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021

I'd call this the stock market chart of the year — current year earnings estimates keep rising (as do forward earnings as we get towards the end of the year), which has acted as a magnet pulling stock prices higher. pic.twitter.com/ohYtG1KDSq

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 24, 2021

This is pretty remarkable. pic.twitter.com/u7RBbzE4IW

— Chris Pavese (@ChrisPavese) August 19, 2021

Peak new Covid cases?

The 4 US states with the highest covid-19 hospitalization rates (Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, & Mississippi) are all showing signs of a potential peak in new cases… pic.twitter.com/xdanOWAcTQ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 23, 2021

The Mixed News

Leading economic indicators remain high but slowing

The July LEI decelerated to 10.58% Y/Y, from 11.87% in June.

The economic recovery is showing strength, but the year-over-year rate of growth likely peaked in April.

Not necessarily bearish for stocks, but calls for a rotation to #quality

LEI and #SPX chart from @factset. pic.twitter.com/PdKVYC7iu0

— Emily Roland (@emilyrroland) August 19, 2021

Analysts expectations are diverging. Some very bullish and some not so much.

Among Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, the highest year-end estimate for the S&P 500 is 4,825 and the lowest is 3,800, a spread of almost 27%. https://t.co/oeyF2uqy5s

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 25, 2021

The Bad News

Delta variant is causing more short term problems than analysts anticipated

GOLDMAN SACHS cutting its growth forecast due to the Delta variant pic.twitter.com/EiqEuUeTlR

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) August 18, 2021

And the economic surprise index continues to trend lower

Economic Surprise Index from @Citi deeper in negative territory, with seasonal tendencies to consider@SoberLook @Bloomberg @Nomura pic.twitter.com/NyXozIrM9b

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 24, 2021

The State Of The Market

Markets continue to go up

Today could be the 9th new high for the S&P 500 during August.

That would be the most for any year since 1929.

No, I don't think now is 1929, but that is really interesting. pic.twitter.com/2Z68Iw2uwP

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 24, 2021

And Crypto is staging a relatively quiet comeback

Bitcoin tops $50,000 for the first time since May https://t.co/lMdebWEz1K pic.twitter.com/Dd1ionCTLD

— Bloomberg (@business) August 23, 2021

Sidenote: some guy named Justin Sun just spent 500k on a virtual rock. It does have laser eyes, though.

Just spent half million dollars on a rock 😂 pic.twitter.com/4zDmDgzERz

— Justin Sun 🅣🌞 (@justinsuntron) August 22, 2021

Longer sidenote: here’s a quick update on NFTs & virtual rocks. I have no idea – just no idea.

Source: Michael Batnick

Ether Rocks -Pet Rocks on the Blockchain

100 made, 21 available for sale. The highest ask is 303,030 ETH ($960 million).

Of the other 20, the avg asking price is 1,200 ETH, or $3.8 million.

The cheapest is 265 ETHm or $840k. pic.twitter.com/sjKUn9iwat

— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) August 22, 2021

EtherRock 87 purchased for Ξ187 Ether
($611,170.23)

9 mins ago (Aug-22-2021 06:39:03 AM +UTC)

Txn: https://t.co/0bICy16wX1#EtherRock #EtherRocks pic.twitter.com/muW95pOfz5

— EtherRock Price (@etherrockprice) August 22, 2021

Cheapest Cryptopunk:

Feb 14 — $14,470

March 2 — $33,955

May 1 — $60,640

July 31 — $83,997

August 5 — $108,000

August 23 — $203,340 pic.twitter.com/bgNXCc7DSG

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 23, 2021

Someone bought this Cryptopunk today for $237,498.

Sold it six hours later for $281,743. pic.twitter.com/Wgm2EZ46pq

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) August 24, 2021

Back to the real world: But it’s not all rosy out there

The S&P 500 1500 is up 5.9% over the last 3 months, but the 'average' stock in the index is down 0.65%. https://t.co/rxAqQ3tDSk

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 19, 2021

Drawdawns get progressively worse the smaller the asset size. From -0.71% for Large Caps to -11.58% for Micro Caps. pic.twitter.com/YRUYErL5co

— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 18, 2021

And SPACs.. Yikes..

The 25 largest holdings in the SPAC ETF are down an average of 47% from their 52-week high.$SPAK

Data via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/XAamGUKJlm

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 22, 2021

And Asian equities just keep going down

Asian stocks are currently underperforming the S&P 500 by the most this century (well since 1998, but just wanna be dramatic). pic.twitter.com/I8HoBTf7wa

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) August 25, 2021

The China Internet ETF is down over 57% from its high in February, its largest drawdown to date (inception: July 2013).$KWEB

Data via @ycharts pic.twitter.com/nJUFEryUSW

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 20, 2021

To zoom out a little bit..

This stat from @awealthofcs is WILDhttps://t.co/4y5UpewBV1

Yet we sit here, day in and day out, fretting about the market because it's what we do. pic.twitter.com/FgmpRqe9YN

— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) August 24, 2021

Charts/Tweets Of The Week

How Much Revenue Big Tech Makes Per Minute 💰/⏰https://t.co/RXApDjumLR pic.twitter.com/FDhFofIDf6

— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 24, 2021

And given that crypto-trading revenue was 41% of $HOOD's overall revenue…

…that means Dogecoin made up about one-fourth of all its revenue. https://t.co/tCjtGxtx72

— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) August 18, 2021

Inflation? What inflation? pic.twitter.com/reI6k7GlYd

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) August 21, 2021

“Per Social Standards, the number of hard seltzer posts in July declined -17.5% in comparison to last year and are -4.9% below the average number of posts last summer…" pic.twitter.com/RIO9ZJ6HnD

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) August 23, 2021

Mapped: The Top 10 Billionaire Cities 💰https://t.co/e0jKpdouHT pic.twitter.com/2brw7vBjkY

— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) August 22, 2021

Bill Miller on portfolio concentration. "How much is too much? A question of risk versus reward."

"The Chicago Bulls have five sources of points, but Michael Jordan's play usually determines their results.
Should they trade him for a rookie so they won't be so dependent on him?" pic.twitter.com/zgUoEFIFHv

— Frederik (@NeckarValue) August 21, 2021

Disclosure

Clear Rock Advisors, LLC is registered with the SEC as a registered investment advisor with offices in Texas. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by Clear Rock Advisors, LLC) or any investment-related or financial planning consulting services will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or prove successful. It remains the client’s responsibility to advise Clear Rock Advisors, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in the client’s personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing, evaluating or revising Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s  previous recommendations and/or services, or if the client would like to impose, add to, or modify any reasonable restrictions to Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s services. A copy of Clear Rock Advisors, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing its advisory services and fees are available upon request.